Posts tagged NFL
Week 7 Thursday Night Football Pick
Wow, last week was brutal. Just so many wrong calls. I was clear on the Browns and Broncos, but that was pretty much it. Tough week for pick’ems and ATS picks all around. Let’s get back to it this week…
At San Francisco- 8 Seattle
The spread’s too big, Seattle won’t get blown out.
Pick: Seahawks +8
Last Week: 4-10
Season 42-48-1
Last Season: 140-120-12
Oct 18th
Week 3 NFL Picks
At Carolina -2.5 NY Giants
The Panthers got back to running the ball last week and they did it well with a two headed attack. Jonathan Stewart will be a game time decision. If he doesn’t play, I think that hurts the Panthers big time. DeAngelo Williams bounced back from a poor Week 1 showing, but there’s no replacing the one-two punch they got going. Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out for the Giants and Andre Brown is expected to see the bulk of the backfield carries for New York. Hakeem Nicks has been ruled out. Victor Cruz is going to need to have a big game with Domenik Hixon and Nicks both out. I see this being a high scoring affair, and if the Giants are close at the end, it’s hard to not like Eli and the G-Men. Manning can spread the love and make guys like Ramses Barden and Rueben Randle look like studs for a week.
Pick: Giants +2.5
At Chicago -7.5 St. Louis
Will Jay Cutler bounce back after a super ugly game? I think he’ll find a groove, but the Rams secondary isn’t going to get lit up, that’s for sure. I think Chicago will probably win, but I’ll take the points under the assumption that the Rams will keep this close.
Pick: Rams +7.5
At Dallas -8 Tampa Bay
The mental toughness of this Dallas team was questioned once again after they laid an egg in Seattle last week. It’s hard to know what to make of this team, but I see them rebounding at home against the Bucs.
Pick: Cowboys -8
San Francisco -6.5 At Minnesota
The 49ers are clicking on all cylinders. The run game is working. Crabtree and VD are looking dominant. The defense is rock solid and field goals that hit the crossbar bounce right in. If the Niners can shut down offenses like Green Bay and Detroit, they can handle the Vikings in the dome. I feel like San Francisco will dial up at least one redzone play to try and get Randy Moss a touchdown in his old stomping grounds. It’s the right play to keep the part-time player happy.
Pick: 49ers -6.5
Detroit -3.5 At Tennessee
The Titans haven’t scored a first half touchdown yet this season. Chris Johnson has 21 yards on 19 attempts. Yikes. The Lions just move the ball better. Sure they didn’t run all over the 49ers, but who does? I think the Lions shaky secondary is going to give up a couple of big, confidence-boosting plays to Jake Locker and the Titans wide receivers, but the Lions can keep pace, counter with more offensive production and get a win on the road.
Pick: Lions -3.5
At Washington -3 Cincinnati
I hope Garcon plays. He was limited in practice, but I just like watching that Griffin to Garcon connection. The Bengals offense woke up last week. That’ll happen when you play the Browns. Washington lost two key defensive players for the year, Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker. Those guys won’t be easy to replace. It’s only been two games, but the Skins have averaged 34 through two weeks, which tops the league. After blowing a great chance to force overtime last week, I like Washington to come out hungry and ready to roll.
Pick: Redskins -3
NY Jets -2.5 At Miami
Darelle Revis is back, which sucks for Miami. The Dolphins are coming off a huge offensive explosion against the Raiders. Reggie Bush was a monster and Ryan Tannehill looked much improved in his second NFL start. I picked Miami as dogs last week, and I’m tempted to do it again. But with Revis back in the fold and Miami’s secondary lacking any sort of talent, I think I have to go with the Jets here.
Pick: Jets -2.5
At New Orleans -9 Kansas City
I keep picking the Saints and they keep not winning. It’s frustrating. This team is better than that. Okay, maybe the defense isn’t, but I’m tired of seeing this offense camped out in three-and-out land. Get it together, guys. You’re up against the Chiefs. A team that’s been outscored 75-41 in the first two games of the year. If the Saints can’t cover here, they might as well pack it in.
Pick: Saints -9
Buffalo -3 At Cleveland
This game has missed tackles written all over it. These two teams could combine for over 500 rushing yards. Edge goes to the Bills.
Pick: Browns +3
At Indianapolis -3 Jacksonville
I like this Luck guy. If he gets Austin Collie back, he should be able to put together another strong performance at home.
Pick: Colts -3
Philadelphia -3.5 At Arizona
I want to see if this Cardinals defense can keep it going against a team that averaged a league-best 471 yards of offense in the first two games of the season. I think it’s worth noting that the Cardinals have only allowed two touchdowns in two games. If the Cards can stonewall the Eagles and build on last week’s upset, they’ll have to be taken seriously.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
At San Diego -3 Atlanta
Can we get a Ryan Mathews sighting already? It’s Week 3 gaddamnit, it’s time for that guy to get on the field. Teams can run on the Falcons, and if Mathews sees the field, he should be a big upgrade over the RB committee that the Chargers have been working with. I think the Falcons have enough firepower to outscore the Chargers, though. Tony G’s been making plays. Roddy White’s still a beast. Even with a quiet day from Julio Jones, the Falcons can put up points. I like them on the road.
Pick: Falcons +3
Houston -2 At Denver
Manning is mortal after all. The Texans running game isn’t. Denver seems to hate covering tight ends as well. Good news for Owen Daniels owners.
Pick: Texans -2
Pittsburgh -4 At Oakland
No Polamalu or James Harrison for the Steelers. Both standout defenders were out against the Jets and the defense still looked great. The Steelers running game has completely disappeared. The Redman-Dwyer project has run its course. Mendenhall is practicing, but will he play before Week 5? With key starters missing, the Steelers still have a strong enough defense and passing game to win on the road in Oakland. The Raiders always seem to win games like this, but I’m sticking with Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers -4
At Baltimore -3 New England
The Pats bounce back in a tough road game.
Pick: Pats +3
Green Bay -3 At Seattle
Seattle crushed the Cowboys, but getting past the Packers won’t be as easy.
Pick: Packers -3
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season 16-15-1
Last Season: 140-120-12
Sep 20th
Week 16 NFL Picks
So I’m limping toward the end of the regular season, coming off my worst week of the year. Let’s see if we can right the ship a bit with some quality picks before the playoffs kick off.
Houston -6 At Indianapolis
Will the Colts win back to back games? No. Sure the Texans had a bit of a letdown last week, and yea I get that Donald Brown is playing hard despite people quitting all around him, but let’s be real here. The Texans are going to lock this up, run it out and win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Texans -6
At Kansas City -2 Oakland
Man, this game might be different if it was played in Oakland or if Todd Haley was still the head coach in KC, but did you see how the Chiefs reacted to Romeo? It’s kinda crazy. I understand that Oakland still has a chance to make the playoffs, but if the Chiefs show up at home like they did last week, all fired up and ready to rock, I don’t think the Raiders can hang with ‘em. With players already actively lobbying for Romeo to get the gig full time next year, I think the Chiefs take this one.
Pick: Chiefs -2
Denver -3 At Buffalo
The last time the Bills won was the day before Halloween. For all the talk about Tebowmania slowing down, remember that this team was hanging with the Pats before three turnovers derailed everything. The Denver D showed some cracks last week, but that’s to be expected. CJ Spiller has been a shot in the arm for Buffalo, but it’s too little, too late.
Pick: Denver -3
At Tennessee -7.5 Jacksonville
Blaine Gabbert’s not good. He’s completing just 50.6 percent of his passes and he has a QB rating of 65.6 on the year, the worst in the NFL. I get that he doesn’t have the protection or a single decent receiver to throw to, but the guy looks a little flustered. He’s thrown 10 picks and 11 TDs. In the last three weeks, he’s been responsible for five picks and five fumbles. The Titans aren’t a dominant team, but they don’t have to be. If the mistakes keep piling on for Gabbert, they’ll win (and cover) by default.
Pick: Titans -7.5
At Cincinnati -4 Arizona
The Cards have been a huge surprise in the second half of the season. They started 1-6, won six of their last seven, and now sit at an even .500. They’re not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs just yet, either. The Cards have found ways to win games late, and their backup QB John Skelton is a big reason why. Kolb’s sucked it up before getting hurt and now he’s ready to play again. The Wiz should stick with Skelton. It’s weird that this seemingly uninteresting game has playoff implications for both teams. The Bengals close the year out with two home games – Cards and Ravens. They’re currently vying for that final wildcard spot, and they need Ws to hold off the Jets. With both teams needing to win to get in the tourney, I think the home team gets a bit of an edge here. AJ Green has an ailing shoulder, but there’s no way he misses this game. He’s gonna show up big time against this suspect secondary.
Pick: Bengals -4
At New England -9.5 Miami
Not sure what to make of this game. Is Reggie Bush really that amazing? Has Miami’s defense really gotten that much better? Can the Pats maintain their TE-heavy pass attack while still surrendering so many big plays on D? New England is 5-1 at home this year and the Dolphins have won five of their last seven. I don’t think this game is going to be a blowout. The Pats will likely win, but I’m iffy on the spread. Going to give Brady the benefit of the doubt here.
Pick: Pats -9.5
At Baltimore -13 Cleveland
I really don’t think the Ravens are an elite, top-3 NFL team. In all the power rankings you see, Baltimore frequently gets slotted over a team like the Saints. That’s just not accurate. The Ravens are good, but they can get exposed, just like they did last week. This isn’t a team that’s designed to play from behind. If the Browns can go up big early… wait, they can’t. If they could this might be an interesting game, but Seneca, Hillis and that anemic offense can’t put the Ravens in a hole early, so they can’t limit Ray Rice, and they’re not going to win. I think the spread’s a tad too high though.
Pick: Browns +13
At NY Jets -3 NY Giants
The Giants are a hard team to root for. Just when you think they’re clicking, they turn in a stinker like last week. There’s been a ton of shit talking leading up to the Battle of New York, but I think the edge goes to the Jets. The Giants have losed five of their last six, and that one win was by a three point margin. If the Jets avoid the sloppy mistakes that plagued them last week, they should be able to contain the G-men.
Pick: Jets -3
At Washington -6.5 Minnesota
I thought we were cool, Percy Harvin. But no, you had to put up a donut during a critical fantasy week. No matter. The Vikings have allowed the most points this season (406). They got shredded by Drew Brees and they’re bad enough to get shredded by Rex Grossman.
Pick: Skins -6.5
At Carolina -7 Tampa Bay
Carolina’s got a brighter future ahead of them. The Bucs stopped caring awhile ago. I’ll take the home team with the more dynamic playmakers over the team that lost eight straight and ranks near the bottom of every defensive stat category.
Pick: Panthers -7
At Pittsburgh -15 St. Louis
The spread’s just too big. The Steelers hate covering big spreads even with Big Ben under center. Batch has preformed decent in the past when called upon, but he looked kinda shaky coming in during that Browns game. I fully expect St. Louis to lose. The Steelers are going to force the run and have success. They’ll get the W, but I doubt they’ll cover.
Pick: Rams +15
At Detroit -2.5 San Diego
The Lions have won two in a row, but now they play a team that’s on fire. The streaky Chargers have owned December. They have a more balanced offense, a better defense and they’re going to beat the Lions in Detroit.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
San Francisco -2.5 At Seattle
Marshawn can’t be stopped. Even if he doesn’t get a score on the ground against a team that’s yet to allow a rushing TD all year, he’ll still put up decent numbers. The Niners still have problems putting up points. The Steelers couldn’t take advantage of that fact, cause they were too busy turning the ball over. In game that’s sure to feature a lot of field goals, I like the home team with the points.
Pick: Seattle +2.5
At Dallas -2 Philadelphia
The Dream Team finally woke up, but they need help if they want to keep playing in two weeks. The Cowboys got back on track against a sorry Bucs team, but if you look at their last few games, there’s not really an impressive win on the schedule. Sure the Cowboys crushed the Eagles in Week 8, but that was back when the Eagles lost all the time. I think the team’s just more dangerous now, and Dallas has got some questions at RB. I’m going with Philly.
Pick: Eagles +2
At Green Bay -13 Chicago
The Bears are pulling the plug on the Caleb Hanie experiment. One of the McCown brothers will be starting for Chicago. Not sure which one. I don’t think it matters though. The Packers are not going to sit people for a rivalry game like this, especially after suffering their first loss of the year.
Pick: Packers -13
At New Orleans -6.5 Atlanta
I believe in Drew Brees. I believe this team is not going to let up. This game should provide plenty of scoring opportunities, but I think Brees, Jimmy Graham, the deep core of WRs who just show up when needed and like whatever combo of RBs they roll with will do better. Ryan’s not going to play poorly, but the Falcon’s running game just ain’t what it was a few weeks ago. Turner looks tired. The Saints are just more potent.
Pick: Saints -6.5
Week 15: 5-10-1
Season: 121-97-11
Dec 22nd
Week 3 NFL Picks
At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco
AJ Green’s a big time, game-changing threat and Andy Dalton’s looking pretty comfortable at the helm. The Bengals D is a bit underrated as well. I still like the Niners though. They came damn close to upsetting the Cowboys and they’ve held opponents to a league-low 54.5 yards per game through two games this season. I’m going San Fran again this week.
Pick: Niners +2.5
New England -8.5 At Buffalo
Make no mistake, the Pats defense is a huge liability. All this talk about Brady throwing for over 7,000 yards this season hides the fact that New England’s defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL through two games. They’ve allowed an average of 479 per game, and they’re about to face a hot Buffalo team coming off a big comeback win. I think the Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and company are going to be able to move the ball well, but the Pats will still be able to answer. Start your Bills in fantasy, but keep your money on New England.
Pick: Pats -8.5
At New Orleans -4 Houston
If Houston can find a way to win this game, they have to be considered a top contender in the AFC. This game just feels like a shootout that the Texans won’t win. The Saints have a high-octane offense, and the Texans defense has been one of the toughest units in the game so far. Expect tons of scoring opportunities and look for the home team to hang on for the win.
Pick: Saints -4
At Philadelphia -7 NY Giants
Will Vick play? The NFL’s really stressed this whole concussion awareness thing, but Vick has practiced throughout the week, so look for him to suit up against the Giants. DeSean Jackson is also hurting, but even with the injury cloud hovering over these playmakers, I’ll take a hobbled Eagles team over a battered Giants squad any day of the week.
Pick: Eagles -7
At Cleveland -2.5 Miami
The Dolphins are 0-2 in a division where every other team is 2-0. It’s must-win time on Sunday, especially against a relatively weak opponent. Dolphins play desperate and get their first W.
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
At Tennessee -6.5 Denver
The Titans came out strong against the Ravens, but Kenny Brit’s hamstring may be acting up again. Hasselbeck has played sneakily well so far – 51 of 76 for 621 yards, three TDs, two picks and a QB rating of 94.2 through two games – but there have been plenty of plays where he’s just tossing the ball up for Britt and hoping for the best. If Britt’s slowed mb a nagging hammy, the Titans will need to get a lot more production out of Chris Johnson. CJ2K has a measly 77 yards through two games and he’s averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Yikes. The Broncos have a lot of injuries, but they should be getting back some key starters this week. D.J. Williams, Elvis Dumervil, Knowshon Moreno and Brandon Lloyd were all back at practice this week. I think Denver keeps it close, but the Titans pull away at home.
Pick: Titans -6.5
Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota
What’s this? The Lions are favorites on the road? You’ve seen what this team did in the first two weeks; steady defense, an explosive offense, playmakers on both sides of the ball. After an abysmal performance in Week 1, the Vikings seemed to right the ship last week. Then they let the win slip away. If Percy Harvin is not on the field for a majority of the team’s offense plays this week, someone should get fired. Either way, the Lions prove too much for the Viking to handle.
Pick: Lions -3.5
At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville
No one expected the Panthers to be this good on offense, but the team is still struggling to establish the run and maintain momentum on both sides of the ball. One way to get things right is to host a rookie QB starting his first NFL game. Pick the panthers to get their first W.
Pick: Panthers -3.5
At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City
The Chiefs are in full on panic mode. Cassell’s looked terrible. They lost their best defensive player in Week 1 and their most potent offensive weapon in Week 2. Travelling to San Diego to face a team that’s balanced on both sides of the ball isn’t going to help at all. Chiefs absorb another beatdown.
Pick: Chargers -14.5
NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland
I think this is one of the toughest games of the week to call. The Raiders aren’t going to be kicked around anymore. They’re playing good football and could easily be 2-0. The Jets had a gimmie last week, but the Cowboys did give them some trouble in Week 1. I’m going to go with the Raiders to cover at home. They may not win, but they’ll keep it close.
Pick: Raiders +3.5
Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis
You better believe that Harbaugh’s going to have his team ready to throw down this weekend. That Titans game was a wake-up call, and the Ravens are going to come out looking to make a statement against a team that can’t really get things going on either side of the ball.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta
I know the Falcons play poorly on the road, and it’s always hard to pick against a scrappy Tampa Bay team that always finds a way to win games, but I have to go Falcons here. They have more weapons and they look more poised to make a leap to the next level.
Pick: Falcons +1.5
Arizona -3.5 At Seattle
Seattle is not a good football team. In Pittsburgh, the Seahawks never even saw the Steelers’ side of the field until the fourth quarter. This team can’t pass, can’t run and they can’t stop the pass or the run. Sure, the Cardinals lost to the Redskins and yea, their secondary is terrible, but they’re better this team is better than Seattle.
Pick: Cardinals -3.5
Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago
Evaluating the Bears is a seesaw exercise week in and week out. They looked dominant against the Falcons and looked totally outmatched by the Saints. The team is probably somewhere in the middle – good enough to be top tier, but not good enough to be considered elite. The Packers had a first half scare against the Panthers, but the better team won in the end. The Packers are an elite squad that will find a way to get it done on the road.
Pick: Packers -3.5
Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis
The Steelers cover easy and keep building their confidence.
Pick: Steelers -10.5
At Dallas -5.5 Washington
I don’t care what anyone says, I don’t believe in the Redskins. Grossman and company deserve some credit for not playing terrible, horrible football, but this team is due for a loss. I picked the Niners to beat the Cowboys last week, but I didn’t account for Tony Romo’s late game heroics. The Cowboys may be banged up, but they still have the pieces in place to beat the Skins.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5
Last Week: 9-6-1
Season: 19-11-2
Sep 22nd
Week 2 NFL Picks
Week 1 is in the books and it was filled with sloppy tackling, big special teams plays and tons of passing yards. Big fellas looked winded all across the league, and clearly there are a ton of teams that need to work out the kinks after the lockout-shortened offseason. The entire NFC South is winless, the Vikings are already on the bottom looking up in the NFC North, same deal with the Dolphins in the AFC West. All that can change in Week 2 of course. Here’s a look at our picks:
At New Orleans -6.5 Chicago
The Bears looked legit in Week 1, but it’s hard not to like the Saints offense at home in the dome. Still, there are other factors to consider. The Packers did whatever they wanted to on offense against the Saints. I also feel like the Bears are going to rally around Brian Urlacher after his mother passed away this week. An underrated, emotionally hyped-up team could spell trouble for the Saints. Bears cover in an emotional seesaw battle:
Pick: Bears +6.5
At Detroit -8 Kansas City
The Chiefs look like a mess and the Lions did nothing to quiet they hype. The loss of Eric Berry for the season is dire for KC. Detroit fans finally have something to cheer for. Look for Stafford to put up big numbers again in the Lions home opener.
Pick: Lions -8
At NY Jets -9 Jacksonville
The Jets got some lucky breaks at the end of the game and took one from Dallas last week. The Jags didn’t ask new starting QB Luke McCown to do too much (175 yards, no TDs and no picks). MJD and Deji Karim provided most of the offense for Jacksonville with 43 rushing attempts. The Jets gave up 315 passing yards to Dallas, but the Cowboys only gained 45 yards on the ground. Look for the Jets D to bottle up the run and force some mistakes from McCown.
Pick: Jets -9
At Buffalo -3 Oakland
The Bills absolutely lit up the Chiefs in Week 1. Fred Jackson gained 112 yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed four touchdowns. The Bills had trouble stopping the run last year, but they held Jamaal Charles to only 56 yards. Still, KC was down early and never had a chance to get the ground game going. KC finished with 108 rushing yards on 18 attempts, so the team still averaged six yards per carry. The Raiders ground game led the way in Denver. Darren McFadden rushed for 150 yards on 22 carries. The Bills are going to have some trouble with McFadden, but Fitzpatrick will be able to pass the ball on an Oakland team that allowed 304 passing yards from Kyle Orton. I like the Bills at home.
Pick: Bills -3
At Washington -3.5 Arizona
Expect a shootout in DC. Grossman’s going to pick apart a secondary that allowed over 400 passing yards to a QB making his first NFL start last week. Kolb looked good in the opener and I expect him to build on this success with another strong passing effort.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Baltimore -6 At Tennessee
The Ravens destroyed Pittsburgh at home and now they’ll hit the road and take on the Titans. The Titans had trouble stopping the run in Week 1, and if it wasn’t for a couple big plays by WR Kenny Britt, the Titans would’ve lost in more convincing fashion. Chris Johnson isn’t going off this week. Ray Rice will run wild and the Ravens will take care of business on the road.
Pick: Ravens -6
At Pittsburgh -14 Seattle
I’d hate to be a Seahawk this week. The Steelers are going to come out angry after suffering their worst defeat in years. This game features the largest spread of the week, and for good reason. Reports of the demise of the Steelers aging defense are greatly exaggerated. I saw a lot of missed tackles and winded defenseman in week 1 of this post-lockout season. The Steelers D is the same unit that got the Super Bowl last year. James Harrison isn’t 100 percent after two offseason back surgeries, but this unit will be fine. Big Ben will play smart, the defensive playmakers will show up and the Steelers cover easy.
Pick: Steelers -14
Green Bay -10 At Carolina
I don’t care how terrible the Arizona secondary is, Cam Newton still looked extremely comfortable in his first NFL start. He stood tall in the pocket, moved around when he needed to and connected on 24 of 37 passes for 422 yards, two TDs and a rushing score. The kid can play. So can Aaron Rodgers. I don’t remember seeing a Packers third down last Thursday against the Saints. Green Bay moved the ball at will. I love the feel-good nature of the Panthers, but the champs can cover 10 points on ‘em.
Pick: Packers -10
At Minnesota -3 Tampa Bay
39 yards? Really McNabb? More than half the leagues QB’s passed for more than 300 yards in Week 1, but Donovan couldn’t crack 40. The Vikings lost but still covered the spread last week against the Chargers. Now they get a chance to right the ship at home. The Bucs are coming off a tough home loss to the Lions where LeGarrette Blount was barely used (5 carries, 15 yards). Look for that to change this week. Still, I like the Vikings to rebound in a close game.
Pick: Vikings -3
Cleveland -2.5 At Indianapolis
I picked Cleveland in a Survivor Pool last week, and it cost me. I was betting against Andy Dalton, but then the Bengals broke out the Polish Rifle, Bruce Gradkowski. He found AJ Green for his first NFL reception/TD. The Browns couldn’t answer and I’m bitter about it. As sad as it was watching the Colts get demolished by the Texans, there are still some decent players on that team. These guys are professionals, and they have to be pretty fired up about everyone writing them off. All this talk of a winless season and an Andrew Luck draft pick pisses the Colts off enough to cover at home against a Browns team that couldn’t handle the friggin’ Bengals.
Pick: Colts +2.5
Dallas -3 At San Francisco
For three quarters, the Cowboys looked sick in the Meadowlands. Romo was making plays, Dez Bryant was everywhere, Miles Austin was breaking loose and Jason Witten got tons of looks. Then came the inevitable Dallas meltdown. Dez won’t be 100 percent this week. I like the 49ers, and not just cause Ted Ginn found the endzone on two returns. Alex Smith dinked and dunked his way to 124 yards, completing 15 of 20 passes against Seattle. Gore didn’t impress, tallying 59 yards on 22 carries. San Francisco’s D kept Marshawn Lynch in check and they were able to pressure Tavaris Jackson. The top weaponm for the Niners may end up being David Akers again this week. The Cowboys aren’t bad, but there’s something brewing with Harbaugh at the helm in SF. I’m going with an irrational gut pick and taking the Niners this week.
Pick: Niners +3
Houston -3 At Miami
After surrendering 622 yards of offense to Tom Brady and company, Miami gets the unfortunate task of trying to stop a Texans team with too many weapons. Arian Foster’s likely to play, but even if he doesn’t, the Texans proved they can run the ball with anyone in the backfield. Toss in Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and Schaub at the helm, and this looks like another tough day for Miami’s D. I really like Owen Daniels this week. You saw what the Pats TEs did last week – Hernandez and Gronkowski combined for 13 catches, 189 yards and two scores. I don’t care how good Henne looked. Brandon Marshall can call him the White Vick all day long. The Texans are just too explosive. The Fins will lose again.
Pick: Texans -3
At New England -6.5 San Diego
The Chargers may get Tolbert back, but it’s hard to not like the Pats here. Sure, the defense has some serious issues stopping people. And yea, the Chargers know how to move the ball, but these Norv Turner-led Chargers just don’t win that many away games in September/October. The team lost their first four road games last season (against these teams no less: the Chiefs, Cards, Raiders and Rams). The Chargers will score points, no doubt, just not enough to cover against a locked-in Pats squad.
Pick: Pats -6.5
At Denver -3.5 Cincinnati
I’d stay away from this game at all costs. The Broncos looked pretty weak against the Raiders and the Bengals pulled off a surprise win in Week 1. Not sure what to make of either team at this point. Denver’s kind of banged up. Brandon Lloyd hurt his groin. Champ Bailey hurt his hamstring. Elvis Dumervil hurt his shoulder. Knowshon is questionable with a hamstring injury as well. DJ Williams wasn’t healthy enough to play in Week 1. That’s a lot of big names to have hurt. Factor in the home crowd calling for the starting QB’s demise and that’s tough sledding for any team. The Bengals are still the Bengals, but their defense was solid in Week 1. If they can take advantage of the ailing Broncos D, this game should be close. Still, I’ll give the edge to the home team. Hopefully the crowd can avoid turning on Orton.
Pick: Broncos -3.5
Philadelphia -2.5 At Atlanta
Vick returns to ATL, where Matt Ryan loves to play. If you take a look at his game logs, Ryan is just way better in the comfort of his own dome. This game will be close. Expect lots of points on both sides. It’s hard to not like what the Eagles can do, but I just feel like Atlanta’s the smarter choice at home. Start any fantasy player on either squad, but expect the Falcons to come out on top.
Pick: Falcons +2.5
At NY Giants -6 St. Louis
I like the G-Men at home here. There are big injuries on both teams and holes all around. I’ll give the Giants the benefit of the doubt at home.
Pick: Giants -6
Last Week:
10-5-1
Sep 16th
Great Hall of Fame Speeches Today
There’s just something special about watching grown men – men who have achieved the highest distinction in sport – break down in tears while expressing their love and respect for the game of football. If you have ever played the game of football, at any level, it changes you. Football’s all about personal responsibility and pride, execution and trust in other men. It’s a beautiful game that forces you to become more than you are, and to strive for something bigger than yourself.
The Hall of Fame speeches I saw on Saturday we’re fantastic. Watching Deion Sanders and feeling that guy’s passion was incredible. Hearing him explain how he was embarrassed by his mother and her job cleaning up at a hospital, but how he flipped that into motivation to make sure that she’d never have to work a day again in her life. Just great stuff.
Watching Sterling Sharpe trying, desperately and unsuccessfully, to choke back the tears after his brother Shannon gave him a Hall of Fame shout out like no other, you could just feel the weight and importance of that emotional moment for both of the brothers Sharpe. That shit was just real, raw, once-in-a-lifetime emotion right there.
Sure, football’s just a game. And yea, there’s all kinds of cliches about football being a metaphor for life and all that, but you just can’t underestimate how respected and beloved the game of football really is, and how deserving the game is of that respect. When you see football legends break down on an open mic while expressing their appreciation for the game, it’s the closest thing us dudes have to a perfect cathartic moment.
If you haven’t see this year’s Hall of Fame speeches, spend some time and get in touch with your man-emotions this weekend. You’ll feel better after you do.
Aug 7th
NFL Conference Championship Picks
What a sick set of playoff games we got going here, folks. The Seahawks shocked the world in the first round by knocking off the champs. Then they got beaten up in frosty Chicago. Atlanta was 13-3, but they had no answer for the red-hot Packers and their deadly QB. The Ravens stuck it to the Chiefs, but couldn’t stop Pittsburgh from coming back to secure their third straight playoff victory against Baltimore.
Then there’s the Jets. Everyone loved ‘em, then turned on them, and now all the love is back. If the Pats win, Rex Ryan is a pompous fool whose shit-talking ways could not match the evil composure of New England. But the Pats lost, so Ryan’s bluster is a strength once again.
The Jets have every right to be all proud and swaggery. They shut down the Colts at home. They neutered New England in Foxborough. They were motivated by so many factors: beatdown redemption, fetish jokes, hell, they were even fighting for Dennis Byrd, who overcame a gruesome neck injury in 1992 and beat paralysis so he could inspire future Jets players to stick it to the Patriots.
So many story lines. So much drama. And now we’re down to the final four. With three more meaningful football games left, let’s take a look at who we think will make it to the big dance.
Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago
It had to be this way. What a classic NFC matchup. These two teams have such a storied, historic rivalry, but they met in the playoffs only once (back in 1941). Seventy years is long time to wait for a postseason rematch, but these teams know each other well, and they’ve been preparing for this moment for some time.
Road to the NFC Championship
When he was hired back in 2004, Chicago head coach Lovie Smith laid out his strategy for success: 1) Beat the Packers. 2) Win the division. 3) Win the Super Bowl.
The following year in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers was brought in to make everyone forget about Favre. He sat in the shadows, growing his beard for a handful of seasons before Green Bay finally pulled the trigger and sent Favre packing. Rodgers has developed into a top-tier quarterback, something the Bears lacked desperately.
Fast forward to 2009. Chicago brings in sleepy face all-star Jay Cutler to run the offense. Things didn’t work out that well last season (or during the first half of this year), but with the o-line coming together and Mike Martz making his celebrated in-season strategy adjustment after the bye week, the Bears offense is finally working.
Now on paper, Chicago’s had the easiest road to the Super Bowl in the history of the NFL. They got to host the worst playoff team in NFL history, and they follow that up with a visit from the No.6 seed in the NFC. The Packers aren’t your typical six seed, and the Seahawks earned some respect by taking out the Saints. Still, the Bears are just one home win away from their second Super Bowl appearance in five years.
The Packers have had their back against the wall since Week 16 of the regular season. To get into the tournament, Green Bay needed victories in two must-win regular season games against the Giants and the Bears. The Packers took care of business. They followed that up by taking out an Eagles team that was favored to win. They were dogs in Atlanta and they dismantled that team. The Packers have been in playoff mode for more than a month. The Falcons and Pats showed this weekend that momentum is a huge factor in the postseason. Like the Steelers in ‘05, the Giants in ‘07 and the Cardinals in ’08, teams that peak at the right time can do serious damage in the playoffs.
The Matchup
Chicago matches up well against the Packers. The Bears won the first regular season meeting in Soldier Field by a field goal, and with nothing for the Bears to play for, the Packers beat the Bears in Lambeau by a score in the final game of the regular season. Field conditions won’t be an issue for either team. These teams compete in the coldest division in football. They’re both used to playing in shit conditions.
So the real question is, which Cutler will we see this weekend? The confident, attacking, even-I-can’t-believe-I-ran-for-two-scores warrior that we saw for most of the Seattle game? Or the guy who too often targets the wrong color jersey (like he did on that one, unthinkable goal line pass this past Sunday).
Cutler’s a question mark, but Rodgers isn’t. The guy’s on a different level right now. In two playoff games, he’s completed 49 passes on 63 attempts for 546 yards, 6 TDs and no picks. Completing 77.8 percent of your playoff passes is pretty ridiculous. He’s obviously getting great protection, but even when the pocket collapses, Rodgers has been able to create opportunities. His QB rating this postseason is 134.5.
Jan 18th
NFL Divisional Playoff Picks
At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore
You gotta love this matchup. Two brutally physical teams that hate each other and split close games in the regular season get a postseason rubber match to decide who gets to represent the division in the AFC Championship game. Both teams can run and stop the run. Both teams have quality QBs and gam-changing safeties. Linebackers on both sides can wreak havoc on the opposing team’s offense. There’s no trickery here. No hidden surprises. Just 60 smash mouth minutes of entertaining football. Ray Rice will make more plays in the passing game and he’ll have more of an impact than Rashard Mendenhall. Mike Wallace finds the endzone. Big Ben outduels Flacco the road warrior, and the Steelers D makes a couple more impact plays than Baltimore’s defense. No room for kicking errors here. It’ll be a close one, but after Saturday, Tomlin will have a 7-0 record against the Ravens in games started by Big Ben.
PICK: Steelers -3
At Atlanta -2 Green Bay
The Falcons looked kinda vulnerable against the Saints a few weeks back. I’ve been underestimating Atlanta all year, but I just don’t see this Packers run ending in the divisional round. Rodgers is playing confident, mistake-free football, and he now has the semblance of a running game to pair with his top-notch passing skills. Atlanta isn’t without weapons, but the Packers defense is just better. During the regular season, Green Bay allowed fewer points and fewer yards than Atlanta. There will be a good deal of scoring in this game. Matt Ryan will stay composed, Turner will rack up yards, but the Packers win ‘cause they’re a better team that’s peaking at the right time.
PICK: Packers +2
At Chicago -10 Seattle
I’ve hated on the Bears all year, but this team has managed to really get into a groove. The o-line is protecting better, they’re more balanced offensively, the defense has looked sharp and Matt Forte had a great second half. Cutler’s a wildcard, though. When he plays good, he looks damn near elite. When he makes mistakes, he makes them in bunches. I didn’t think Seattle could win the last two weeks, but they took advantage of their home field, moved the ball well and they reduced turnovers. I think the Bears are going to win this game, but the line doesn’t reflect the momentum that Seattle’s accumulated. Forte goes off and the Bears win, but not by more than 10.
PICK: Seahawks +10
At New England -9 NY Jets
So many insults. So many foot references. I can’t wait for this game to be played so that we can end all the talk and just watch some bitter division rivals play angry football. I didn’t think the Jets would get out of Indy, but they did. The Pats look poised as hell, though. They’re the favorites to win the Super Bowl for a reason. They don’t turn the ball over and their defense is quietly gelling. But the Jets are bitter. They’re angry about the regular season beatdown. They’re angry about being second-fiddle to the golden boy QB and the genius head coach. The Jets will be high on emotions, but the Pats will be programmatic with their attack. If Sanchez plays throws passes like he did last week, this game has the potential to turn ugly real fast. The Jets deserve to be where they are, but the Pats will remind them who owns the AFC East.
PICK: Pats -9
Last week: 2-2
Season: 129-122-7
Jan 14th
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
I love the playoffs. Anything can happen in the NFL postseason, but the start of the playoffs also signals that the end is near. Soon, there won’t be any more football on Sundays. You’ll have no excuse to block off half your weekend for beers, TV and couch time. You’ll have to start taking out your lady, going to family events, all kinds of nonsense like that. Might as well enjoy football while you still can. Do yourself a favor enjoy a Saturday and Sunday full of quality Wildcard action. Now on to the picks.
New Orleans -10 At Seattle
Seattle messed up my miracle parlay last week. Everything fell into place with Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all covering. Then, the Rams walked into a a fired up home crowd and a surprisingly efficient Charlie Whitehurst. So thanks Seattle for cheating me out of a $400-plus payout. The Saints are banged up, but they still have Brees at the helm. He should do more damage against Seattle than Bradford and a group of wide receivers that couldn’t catch a damn thing. The spread’s high and I’d like to give some respect to the Seahawks at home, but I can’t do it. Hasselbeck’s going to get pressured and Brees can create enough big passing plays to cover the wide margin.
Pick: Saints -10
At Indianapolis -2.5 NY Jets
The Jets are a decent team. They beat the Steelers on the road and they rebounded from their late season losses with a strong showing last week. Still, I’m not going to pick against Peyton Manning at home. Collie’s gone, but the running game is coming up strong. The Jets will be able to move the ball on the Colts D, but as long as Manning doesn’t have shifty-rattled playoff feet, he should be able to lead his team to victory.
Pick: Colts -2.5
Baltimore-3 At Kansas City
Playing at Arrowhead’s no easy task, but the Ravens can win playoff games on the road. Cassel’s mistake-free season has gotten messy over the least couple games, and the Ravens offense hasn’t really been lighting up opponents as of late. This is going to be a low scoring grinder game with Charles and Rice battling for tough yards on the ground. One big turnover should tip the scales, and with an extra-emotional Ed Reed on the field, the edge goes to the visiting team.
Pick: Ravens -3
At Philadelphia -2.5 Green Bay
Vick will face the blitz and still make plays. But will he make mistakes as well? Vick needs to be smart with the ball and the Eagles need a heavy does of LeSean McCoy to keep Green Bay’s defense honest. I think Aaron Rodgers is dialed in right now, and I like the Packers to edge out the Eagles in a high scoring game.
Pick: Packers +2.5
Last week: 8-8
Season: 127-120-7
Jan 7th
