Sports
Super Bowl XLVI Pick
I feel like this is going to be a great game to watch. No one’s expecting a blow out. No one’s expecting one team to be in over their heads. Both coaches and QBs know the drill. They understand the importance of the moment. Belichick and Coughlin won’t be underprepared. Brady and Manning are both big game quarterbacks that won’t back away from the big stage.
But who’s going to win? The line started at Pats -3.5, and after a ton of early action on the Giants, it settled in at -3. If the Pats were favored by anything over a field goal, I think it’d be a no-brainer to roll with the G-men. But the line sits at an awkward-to-call -3, so there are arguments to be made for both teams. They go something like this:
Giants
Eli’s on fire. He dominates the fourth quarter, threw for over 5,000 yards this season and he’s only tossed one pick in the postseason. New York’s front four will pressure Brady into total confusion, causing QB jitters, happy feet and throwing mistakes. Just look what happens to Brady when he plays teams like the Ravens and the Steelers. Brady can be rattled. He’s human. He hates pressure and with a healthy set of top-flight D-linemen, New York’s pressure on Brady will be the difference in the game.
Plus, the Giants’ trio of speedy, sure-handed wideouts will be too much for New England’s suspect secondary to deal with (especially if Victor Cruz gets matched up with makeshift DB Julian Edelman). The Pats have the worst defense in football and everyone knows that defense wins championships. New York’s defense has steadily improved over the last few weeks. The Giants got hot at the right time. They beat the Pats in the regular season, and they aren’t afraid of knocking them out of Super Bowls either. Sure, Gronk is a matchup nightmare, but dude’s extra hurting and with the long halftime (31 minutes), his high ankle sprain will stiffen up and he’ll be unable to produce in the second half. Giants all the way.
Patriots
Belichick and Brady are the best there ever was. With another Super Bowl win, Belichick will join Chuck Knoll as the only head coach to win four titles. A fourth Super Bowl victory would put Tom Brady into an elite class that includes just two Hall of Fame QBs: Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Brady and Belichick are the only coach/QB combo to make five Super Bowl appearances. Aaron Rodgers had an MVP-type season and Drew Brees set the all-time mark for passing yards, but Brady’s year was pretty sick as well. The guy threw for 5,253 passing yards (a career-best and the second-best total in NFL history) with 39 TDs, 12 picks and a passer rating of 105.6. Brady’s coming off his worst passing performance of the season (239 yards, two INTs, no TDs and a passer rating of 57.5 against Baltimore). It’s not like he needs extra motivation for the Super Bowl, but you get the sense that Brady’s going to bounce back, put on a performance for the ages, and grab the chance to seal his already stellar legacy.
The Pats D is viewed as a weakness, but Vince Wilfork is playing amazing and New England’s defense has actually improved during the postseason. Sure, they haven’t faced an offense as potent as the Giants, but the Pats seem to get stops when they need to. They’ve allowed just three touchdowns through eight quarters in the playoffs.
And sure, the Giants have some solid weapons in the passing game. But look at what the Pats have to work with. Gronk and Hernandez combined for 2,237 receiving yards and 24 TDs in the regular season. Wes Welker posted 1,569 receiving yards, the second most in the league.
So how is this all going to shake out?
My money’s on Brady seizing the opportunity to cement his legacy. If he can get the time to throw, he’ll carve up the G-men. I’m sure it’s going to be a close, high scoring game. With so many things to balance, I say Brady tips the scale and delivers a huge game.
Pick: Pats -3
Season: 140-119-12
Feb 3rd
NFL Conference Championship Picks
I’ll be the first to admit that my playoff picks have been terrible. I started getting cold in the final couple weeks of the season and that just carried over into the playoffs. Plus, I’m still trying to figure out how the Broncos beat the Steelers. It’ll happen sooner or later, but I’m just not there yet.
I was convinced that the winner of the Saints/Packers NFC Championship Game would go on to win the Super Bowl. The problem with that is that both teams got bounced last week. The Giants came out more fired up and less rusty than the Packers, who just didn’t seem like they were on the same page all day. The Niners used turnovers, physicality, amazing play calls and too many clutch plays late to kick the Saints out of the playoffs.
On the AFC side, the Texans couldn’t put away the Ravens. Houston’s defense was fantastic. They bottled up Ray Rice and never let the Ravens get into an offensive rhythm. But the Texans couldn’t survive three picks from their rookie QB. The Pats mopped up the Broncos in a hurry, and at this point, they have to be viewed as the favorite to win it all.
At New England -7 Baltimore
I don’t think the Ravens are very good. Granted, I have a very clear pro-Steelers bias that comes with a requisite level of Ravens-hate, but I mean I just don’t see this team taking out the Pats at home. While Flacco doesn’t deserve all the blame for Baltimore’s anemic offense, he certainly hasn’t been that impressive of late. The last time Flacco threw for 300 yards was in Week 9. I get that it’s not his job to air it out. Ray Rice is the featured part of this offense. But if you’re traveling to New England to play the Pats, having a QB that’s averaged 193 passing yards per game over the last nine games isn’t ideal. There’s only been two games this season where Flacco has thrown more than three touchdowns. So even if the Ravens D shows up big and Ray Rice goes off, I still think the Ravens need a big game from Flacco to pull off a Super Bowl berth. And I just don’t see that happening. Add in the fact that Ed Reed’s not 100 percent, Tom Brady looks like a man possessed and Gronk want touchdowns, and I just don’t see how the Ravens can pull off the upset.
Pick: Pats -7
At San Francisco -2.5 NY Giants
Alex Smith played the game of his life last week. He completed 24 of 42 passes for 299 yards and three TDs and no picks. And that QB keeper call where he used his wheels to score from 28 yards out was just incredible. Smith has the fewest INTs of any NFL starter this season. That’s crazy impressive. To put it in perspective, Alex Smith threw five picks this year. Last season, Eli Manning threw five times that amount. Eli has done a much better job this season, throwing only 16 INTs, but you get the point. The Niners have won ball games by being physical, leading the league in takeaways and performing solidly on special teams. But for that formula to work, Alex Smith can’t make mistakes. And last week, he didn’t. But this week, he’s facing a much more formidable pass rush and a defense that’s been steadily improving in both health and performance the last few weeks. I get that the Niners can stop the run. That’s great because New York’s ground game isn’t the foundation of their offense. Eli Manning is. His ability to make plays is what will be the difference in this game. Eli set a franchise record with 4,933 passing yards this season. He threw an NFL-record 15 TD passes in the fourth quarter. In short, Eli has been all kinds of clutch, and he’s the main reason the Giants are a win away from the Super Bowl. I’m not saying that it’s going to be easy. San Francisco’s defensive players look like they relish the chance to inflict pain. I see this game being a true, physical slug match. It’s going to be chippy, messy, rainy, all that. But I think the Giants will pull away at the end.
Pick: Giants +2.5
Last Week: 1-3
Season:139-118-12
Jan 20th
NFL Divisional Round Picks
New Orleans -3.5 At San Francisco
Here’s something everyone knows: The Saints play better when the play indoors. But wait, now they have to travel to the harsh conditions of San Francisco, where they’ll face temperatures in the 60s and a zero percent chance of rain. This indoor/outdoor stuff is nonsense. Will the Saints ridiculous offense be slowed a little bit by running on real grass? Yea, probably, but don’t tell me that this matchup in SF is going to totally derail Brees and company because they’re not used to playing in sunny weather. Look, the 49ers are not a bad team. It’s not their fault they play in the watered down NFC West. They can stop the run, minimize turnovers and grind games out. This team is super good at field goals. But the Saints don’t kick field goals. They score touchdowns. Lots of ‘em. Sure the Saints have never won a road playoff game (0-4), but the team averages 150 more passing yards a game and 10 more points a game than the Niners. If San Francisco stalls in the redzone, which they so often do, then this game won’t even be close. I totally get that the 49ers have the best rushing defense in the league and they can pressure the quarterback and create takeaways and all that, but the Niners D will need to create multiple game changing plays to keep the team in the game. Go with the team that’s scored at least 40 points in the last four games over a team that’s allowed just 10 total points in their last three home games.
Pick: Saints -3.5
At New England -14 Denver
I can’t figure out which remaining AFC team I like the least. They’re all flawed, really. It’s going to be hard for this conference to knock off whatever team takes home the NFC crown. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick used to be a force in the playoffs, but the Pats have been unceremoniously bounced out of the postseason early the last two years, at home no less. The Pats haven’t covered against the spread in the playoffs since 2006. The Pats also have difficulty covering double digit spreads of late. I think Tebow played the game of his life, and it’s going to be hard to repeat that performance from last week. I fully expect the Pats to win this one. Still, covering two touchdowns is an awful lot to ask, especially when you’re up against a team that’s primary game plan will be to grind minutes of the clock and keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. Pats win but don’t cover.
Pick: Broncos +14
At Baltimore -7.5 Houston
I’m not sold on either of these teams. They’re similar in that they’re both run-focused squads with top-shelf defenses that prefer a more smashmout approach to the game. The Texans can manhandle people at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, but the last time these two teams met, Ray Rice went off and Flacco threw for 305 yards. Matt Schaub was bottled up and so was Arian Foster. The Ravens D also racked up three sacks. Baltimore dominated that game. The Ravens are 8-0 when playing at home, so I think the home field advantage really does play a factor in this game. I still don’t trust Flacco, though. This game should come down to a game changing defensive play. I bet it’s the Texans, not the Ravens, who make it. The Texans haven’t lost by more than a TD all year. Don’t see it happening in a low scoring game.
Pick: Texans +7.5
At Green Bay -7.5 NY Giants
It’s amazing how much respect the Giants are getting with this spread. The G Men kept it close when these two teams met in the Meadowlands a few weeks ago, and the Giants are certainly benefiting from their performances the last two weeks against Dallas and Atlanta. The Giants aren’t going to get blown out, but I fully expect them to lose. Sure, Green Bay’s secondary is vulnerable and Eli Manning has the weapons to exploit that. The Giants pass rush is incredible as well, but I just think the Packers are more likely to not show up flat. G-Men keep it close, but Green Bay pulls away.
Pick: Packers -7.5
Last Week: 2-2
Season:138-115-12
Jan 13th
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks
At Houston -3 Cincinnati
The Texans are hitting the playoffs cold. After winning seven in a row from the end of October to mid-December, Houston dropped three straight games to close out the regular season. Yea, TJ Yates got injured and Arian Foster sat out Week 17, but the Texans enter the postseason with a clear lack of momentum.
The Bengals backed their way into the playoffs with some help. They came out flat against the Ravens last week, and Cincy’s D had all kinds of trouble containing Ray Rice. Arian Foster is going to be a challenge for this unit. Yates is healthy and the home crowd will be extra fired up for the first playoff game in franchise history. The Bengals have a great foundation for future success, but they’re going to get bounced out this week.
Pick: Texans -3
At New Orleans -11 Detroit
Remember the quick exit the Saints suffered when traveling to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs last season? You can bet it’s fresh on Sean Payton’s mind, too. And you know he’s prepping his team hard to avoid a trap game at home. This is the biggest spread of the week in what’s sure to be a shootout. The Saints can run when they want to and pass at will. The Lions are a bit more one-dimensional. They’ll put up a fight, but there’s just too many weapons for them to stop.
Pick: Saints -10.5
At NY Giants -3 Atlanta
The Giants are 4-4 at home this year. The Falcons are 4-4 on the road. The Giants have 11 sacks in the past two games. The Falcons have only allowed 26 sacks all season, sixth-best in the league. Both the Giants and the Falcons have top-tier passing games, with players who can stretch the field and pick up big chunks of yards. Eli Manning and Matt Ryan have tossed 29 touchdowns each, and both QBs are experiencing career-best seasons. The Falcons have a decent run D and the Giants are 29th in the league in rushing. The Giants have to be fired up after last week, but the Falcons are coming off a road stellar performance against a terrible Bucs squad. This should be the tightest matchup of the week, but I think Matt Ryan can finally win his first playoff game this week.
Pick: Falcons +3
Pittsburgh -8.5 At Denver
Big Ben is the oddest combination of super tough guy and injury embellishing diva. Back in the Coach Cowher days, Ben claimed to play an AFC Championship game with multiple broken toes. His coach reported that the injury wasn’t in fact that severe. There’s a similar thing going on in Pittsburgh right now, with Ben limping around claiming that he re-aggravated his high ankle sprain against Cleveland, and Tomlin reporting that his QB will be healthy and ready to roll in Denver. No one can question Ben’s toughness, but it’s hard to get a good read on the extensiveness of his injury. He certainly didn’t look anywhere near 100 percent in San Francisco or Cleveland. The Steelers lost Mendenhall to a torn ACL, but Isaac Redman should be a capable substitute as long as he can hang on to the ball. Now if Maurkice Pouncey doesn’t suit up, that’s a huge blow for the Steelers.
Tebowmanina has turned to Turnovermania in recent weeks, but Tebow’s received the green light to fling it on Sunday. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly blown teams out on the road this year, but this is a matchup that they should win. They’ve allowed the fewest passing yards per game this year and they’re going up against a team that averaged only 152.1 passing yards per game, second-worst in the league behind Jacksonville. I don’t anticipate this being a blow out, but even if the Broncos get four quarters of Tebow Time, it’s not going to be enough.
Pick: Steelers -8.5
Week 17: 7-8-1
Season: 136-113-12
Jan 5th
Week 17 NFL Picks
At Philadelphia -8.5 Washington
The Eagles are playing for pride with an eye on next year. They’re playing better football, despite playing for nothing.
Pick: Eagles -8.5
At Atlanta -10.5 Tampa Bay
The Bucs are going to lose their 10th straight game. The Falcons need to end the season on a high note after getting dismantled by Drew Brees.
Pick: Falcons -10.5
San Francisco -10.5 At St. Louis
The 49ers have nothing to play for, and even when they do, they have trouble scoring touchdowns in the redzone. Still, it’s the Rams. Kendall Hunter should be able to do enough to cover that big spread.
Pick: 49ers -10.5
At Minnesota -1.5 Chicago
Joe Webb’s fun to watch and Toby Gerhart can make plays in relief of AP, but I think the Bears are finally going to get that elusive Cutler-less victory.
Pick: Bears +1.5
Detroit -4 At Green Bay
Matt Flynn should be in by the 3rd quarter. The undefeated season dreams are over. Packers pull starters and Detroit sneaks away with a W.
Pick: Lions -4
At NY Giants -3 Dallas
I think this is a toss-up, but I like the Giants to win this min-playoff. The Cowboys always seem to find a way to choke. Gotta go with the home team here.
Pick: Giants -3
At New Orleans -7.5 Carolina
Drew Brees is going to keep flinging it. The Panthers should put up some serious yardage on the gorund, but I think the Saints are going to keep the gas pedal pushed.
Pick: Saints -7.5
Tennessee -2 At Houston
The Texans can’t treat this like a preseason game. Not after what happened the last couple weeks. Even if Arian Foster checks out early, the Texans should pull through.
Pick: Texans +2
Baltimore -2 At Cincinnati
The Bengals can turn the division upside down with a win at home. They can secure a playoff appearance and force the Ravens to hit the road. The Ravens seem to play down to the competition, especially on the road. Cincy will spoil Baltimore’s postseason bye week hopes.
Pick: Bengals +2
Pittsburgh -6.5 At Cleveland
Big Ben can play one quarter and still dominate this squad.
Pick: Steelers -6.5
At Jacksonville -3.5 Indianapolis
The Colts are going to rally their way out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
Pick: Colts +3.5
At Miami -3 NY Jets
Miami’s playing strong, but they’re rolling without Reggie Bush, who’s been lightening up for about a month. Sanchez has takien a lot of heat this week, but if can avoid big mistakes, the Jets D should handle the rest.
Pick: Jets +3
At New England -10.5 Buffalo
Memories of losing Wes Welker for the playoffs might prompt the Pats to sit starters, but the team needs to win to ensure that they lock down the number 1 seed. Still, with the potential for sitting key players on the table, I think the spread’s a bit too high.
Pick: Bills +10.5
At Oakland -3 San Diego
The Raiders are going to put the nail on the Norv Turner coffin. They’re getting healthy and they need the W.
Pick: Raiders -3
At Denver -3 Kansas City
The Chiefs can ruin things for the Broncos. Tebowmania has subsided, but the game is in Denver. If this game was in Arrowhead, I’d go with the Chiefs. But it’ll be a friendly, playoff type atmosphere at home for Tebow and the gang. They win, they’re in.
Pick: Broncos -3
At Arizona -3 Seattle
The Cards aren’t going down without a fight, but Seattle’s just better.
Pick: Seattle +3
Week 16: 8-8
Season: 129-105-11
Dec 31st
Week 16 NFL Picks
So I’m limping toward the end of the regular season, coming off my worst week of the year. Let’s see if we can right the ship a bit with some quality picks before the playoffs kick off.
Houston -6 At Indianapolis
Will the Colts win back to back games? No. Sure the Texans had a bit of a letdown last week, and yea I get that Donald Brown is playing hard despite people quitting all around him, but let’s be real here. The Texans are going to lock this up, run it out and win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Texans -6
At Kansas City -2 Oakland
Man, this game might be different if it was played in Oakland or if Todd Haley was still the head coach in KC, but did you see how the Chiefs reacted to Romeo? It’s kinda crazy. I understand that Oakland still has a chance to make the playoffs, but if the Chiefs show up at home like they did last week, all fired up and ready to rock, I don’t think the Raiders can hang with ‘em. With players already actively lobbying for Romeo to get the gig full time next year, I think the Chiefs take this one.
Pick: Chiefs -2
Denver -3 At Buffalo
The last time the Bills won was the day before Halloween. For all the talk about Tebowmania slowing down, remember that this team was hanging with the Pats before three turnovers derailed everything. The Denver D showed some cracks last week, but that’s to be expected. CJ Spiller has been a shot in the arm for Buffalo, but it’s too little, too late.
Pick: Denver -3
At Tennessee -7.5 Jacksonville
Blaine Gabbert’s not good. He’s completing just 50.6 percent of his passes and he has a QB rating of 65.6 on the year, the worst in the NFL. I get that he doesn’t have the protection or a single decent receiver to throw to, but the guy looks a little flustered. He’s thrown 10 picks and 11 TDs. In the last three weeks, he’s been responsible for five picks and five fumbles. The Titans aren’t a dominant team, but they don’t have to be. If the mistakes keep piling on for Gabbert, they’ll win (and cover) by default.
Pick: Titans -7.5
At Cincinnati -4 Arizona
The Cards have been a huge surprise in the second half of the season. They started 1-6, won six of their last seven, and now sit at an even .500. They’re not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs just yet, either. The Cards have found ways to win games late, and their backup QB John Skelton is a big reason why. Kolb’s sucked it up before getting hurt and now he’s ready to play again. The Wiz should stick with Skelton. It’s weird that this seemingly uninteresting game has playoff implications for both teams. The Bengals close the year out with two home games – Cards and Ravens. They’re currently vying for that final wildcard spot, and they need Ws to hold off the Jets. With both teams needing to win to get in the tourney, I think the home team gets a bit of an edge here. AJ Green has an ailing shoulder, but there’s no way he misses this game. He’s gonna show up big time against this suspect secondary.
Pick: Bengals -4
At New England -9.5 Miami
Not sure what to make of this game. Is Reggie Bush really that amazing? Has Miami’s defense really gotten that much better? Can the Pats maintain their TE-heavy pass attack while still surrendering so many big plays on D? New England is 5-1 at home this year and the Dolphins have won five of their last seven. I don’t think this game is going to be a blowout. The Pats will likely win, but I’m iffy on the spread. Going to give Brady the benefit of the doubt here.
Pick: Pats -9.5
At Baltimore -13 Cleveland
I really don’t think the Ravens are an elite, top-3 NFL team. In all the power rankings you see, Baltimore frequently gets slotted over a team like the Saints. That’s just not accurate. The Ravens are good, but they can get exposed, just like they did last week. This isn’t a team that’s designed to play from behind. If the Browns can go up big early… wait, they can’t. If they could this might be an interesting game, but Seneca, Hillis and that anemic offense can’t put the Ravens in a hole early, so they can’t limit Ray Rice, and they’re not going to win. I think the spread’s a tad too high though.
Pick: Browns +13
At NY Jets -3 NY Giants
The Giants are a hard team to root for. Just when you think they’re clicking, they turn in a stinker like last week. There’s been a ton of shit talking leading up to the Battle of New York, but I think the edge goes to the Jets. The Giants have losed five of their last six, and that one win was by a three point margin. If the Jets avoid the sloppy mistakes that plagued them last week, they should be able to contain the G-men.
Pick: Jets -3
At Washington -6.5 Minnesota
I thought we were cool, Percy Harvin. But no, you had to put up a donut during a critical fantasy week. No matter. The Vikings have allowed the most points this season (406). They got shredded by Drew Brees and they’re bad enough to get shredded by Rex Grossman.
Pick: Skins -6.5
At Carolina -7 Tampa Bay
Carolina’s got a brighter future ahead of them. The Bucs stopped caring awhile ago. I’ll take the home team with the more dynamic playmakers over the team that lost eight straight and ranks near the bottom of every defensive stat category.
Pick: Panthers -7
At Pittsburgh -15 St. Louis
The spread’s just too big. The Steelers hate covering big spreads even with Big Ben under center. Batch has preformed decent in the past when called upon, but he looked kinda shaky coming in during that Browns game. I fully expect St. Louis to lose. The Steelers are going to force the run and have success. They’ll get the W, but I doubt they’ll cover.
Pick: Rams +15
At Detroit -2.5 San Diego
The Lions have won two in a row, but now they play a team that’s on fire. The streaky Chargers have owned December. They have a more balanced offense, a better defense and they’re going to beat the Lions in Detroit.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
San Francisco -2.5 At Seattle
Marshawn can’t be stopped. Even if he doesn’t get a score on the ground against a team that’s yet to allow a rushing TD all year, he’ll still put up decent numbers. The Niners still have problems putting up points. The Steelers couldn’t take advantage of that fact, cause they were too busy turning the ball over. In game that’s sure to feature a lot of field goals, I like the home team with the points.
Pick: Seattle +2.5
At Dallas -2 Philadelphia
The Dream Team finally woke up, but they need help if they want to keep playing in two weeks. The Cowboys got back on track against a sorry Bucs team, but if you look at their last few games, there’s not really an impressive win on the schedule. Sure the Cowboys crushed the Eagles in Week 8, but that was back when the Eagles lost all the time. I think the team’s just more dangerous now, and Dallas has got some questions at RB. I’m going with Philly.
Pick: Eagles +2
At Green Bay -13 Chicago
The Bears are pulling the plug on the Caleb Hanie experiment. One of the McCown brothers will be starting for Chicago. Not sure which one. I don’t think it matters though. The Packers are not going to sit people for a rivalry game like this, especially after suffering their first loss of the year.
Pick: Packers -13
At New Orleans -6.5 Atlanta
I believe in Drew Brees. I believe this team is not going to let up. This game should provide plenty of scoring opportunities, but I think Brees, Jimmy Graham, the deep core of WRs who just show up when needed and like whatever combo of RBs they roll with will do better. Ryan’s not going to play poorly, but the Falcon’s running game just ain’t what it was a few weeks ago. Turner looks tired. The Saints are just more potent.
Pick: Saints -6.5
Week 15: 5-10-1
Season: 121-97-11
Dec 22nd
Week 15 NFL Picks
At Atlanta -11 Jacksonville
The game is in Atlanta, the Falcons need the W and the Jags secondary is a mess. Sure, MJD is
Pick: Falcons -11
Dallas -7 At Tampa Bay
The Bucs gave up last week. The Cowboys found another way to lose late. Look for Dallas to get back on track against a sinking ship.
Pick: Cowboys -7
At NY Giants -7 Washington
If you’re desperate for a QB in fantasy football, Rex might help you out against this suspect secondary. But if you want to chose the right side of this shootout, go with the G-men.
Pick: Giants -7
Green Bay -14 At Kansas City
If you read between the lines of all the comments coming out of Green Bay, the Packers have no intention of letting up. They’re going to be going full throttle against Kyle Orton with a broken finger or rookie QB Ricky Stanzi. Even if Matt Flynn makes an appearance, the Packers should cover.
Pick: Packers -14
New Orleans -7 At Minnesota
Brees vs. a mediocre secondary, that’s a juicy matchup in any week. AP may be back in action, but he can’t match points with the Saints single-handedly. Percy Harvin’s finally getting the looks he deserves in this offense, but Ponder’s made his fair share of mistakes with the football. I don’t see the Saints easing up here. They’re going to exploit a sweet opportunity and put up a ton of points.
Pick: Saints -7
At Chicago -3.5 Seattle
Caleb Hanie is 0-3 as a starter. With Cutler and Forte in the mix, the Bears looked like a playoff lock. Now they’re on the bubble. It’s must-win time, and the Bears get a home game. Seattle has made some noise late in the year, but not on the road. Only two of the team’s six wins have come on the road, and one of those W’s was against St. Louis. Chicago should be able to semi-contain Marshawn Lynch, who’s been in beast mode for weeks now. Seattle’s D is decent, but the Bears are due. The .5 hurts in what’s sure to be a low scoring game, but you gotta take the Bears.
Pick: Bears -3.5
At Buffalo PK Miami
Miami’s late surge wasn’t enough to save Sparano. Which is kinda sad. I mean, you can’t start 0-7 and expect to keep your job, but the Fins battled back. They got manhandled by the Eagles last week, and their head coach got the boot. Now the team travels to Buffalo to face a Bills squad that started the season 5-2 and went on to lose six in a row. During that stretch, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown six TDs and nine INTs. In last week’s beatdown in San Diego, Fitzpatrick threw two picks and didn’t find the endzone once. This is a true coin flip situation, and Vegas knows it. I’m going with the home team redemption story over the team that just dumped their head coach.
Pick: Bills
At Houston -6.5 Carolina
The Panthers can’t stop the run. Like, at all. TJ Yates played fantastic last week, and he’s got two top-tier backs to lean on. Start Ben Tate if you can and enjoy the ground and pound game plan. Houston wins easy.
Pick: Texans -6.5
Tennessee -6.5 At Indianapolis
Caldwell needs a win or he’s out. I don’t think it’s gonna happen. The Titans stifled the Saints for a couple of quarters. They should be able to contain a winless team.
Pick: Titans -6.5
Cincinnati -6.5 At St. Louis
The Bengals aren’t out of the playoff mix just yet, and the Rams are just terrible. Start your Bengals players and look for Cincy’s D to put up some solid fantasy numbers against fill-in journeyman QB Kellen Clemens
Pick: Bengals -6.5
Detroit -1 At Oakland
Tight contest with lots of scoring should be expected here. Carson’s throwing too many picks and Stafford’s got his groove back. I think the edge goes to the Lions.
Pick: Lions -1
New England -6.5 At Denver
Brady doesn’t play well in Denver. He’s 1-5 when playing in Mile High conditions (1-6 if you count the playoffs). The Pats offense is obviously dangerous, and the Broncos haven’t faced a decent QB since they lost to Detroit in Week 8. Six wins later, Denver is sitting atop of the AFC West. If the Broncos can use their top-ranked rushing attack to shorten the game and keep Brady off the field, Tebow may be in position for another 4th quarter comeback. Take Denver and the points, pray that things don’t get out of hand during the first three quarters and hope for some more late game magic.
Pick: Broncos +6.5
At Philadelphia -3 NY Jets
The Jets need it more. Philly finally got a win against Miami, but the Jets are going to run all over this team.
Pick: Jets +3
At Arizona -6.5 Cleveland
The Cards are hot, and they’ve played themselves into long shot playoff status. The Browns are rolling without McCoy, after the young QB got lit up by James Harrison last Thursday. Seneca Wallace came in for one play and threw a sharp pass before McCoy returned to throw a game clinching interception to William Gay. Wallace gets the start and could provide a spark, but I like Arizona to cover.
Pick: Cards -6.5
Baltimore -2.5 At San Diego
Rivers has all his weapons and he’s putting up points and minimizing mistakes. This is the last challenging game on Baltimore’s schedule. With the Steelers in the rear view, they can’t let up. The Chargers likely won’t make the playoffs, but this team loves late season wins. I think they’ll edge out the Ravens at home.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
At San Francisco -3 Pittsburgh
The 49ers haven’t played a good team since Baltimore, and they lost that game. The Steelers won’t run the ball on this team, but if Big Ben plays (and with the AFC playoff picture being so tight, I don’t think he has a choice), then Pittsburgh superior air attack should be able to best San Francisco’s conservative offense and strong D.
Pick: Steelers +3
Week 14: 8-8
Season: 116-87-10
Dec 15th
Week 14 NFL Picks
At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland
If there’s one thing the Steelers hate, it’s covering big spreads. But the pressures on for the team to separate from the rest of the AFC pack. Baltimore owns the tie-breaker with two wins over the Steelers. The Texans also beat the Steelers, so even at 9-3, this team is in must-win mode. Their chances for the playoffs look good, so even against a stiff pass defense, the Steelers should be able to win and win big.
Pick: Steelers -14
At Baltimore -16.5 Indianapolis
Ravens win big and Colts don’t do enough in garbage time to cover this week’s massive spread deficit.
Pick: Ravens -16.5
At Cincinnati -3 Houston
The Texans don’t need an elite QB to beat a second-tier AFC team. The Bengals will put up points, but the Houston will control the pace of the game with their relentless rushing attack.
Pick: Texans +3
At Green Bay -11 Oakland
The spread’s a bit large, but the Packers can cover. The Raiders are still hurting and Green Bay just can’t be stopped.
Pick: Packers -11
At NY Jets -10 Kansas City
The Jets are in full-blown end of the regular season mode. They always finish hot. The Chiefs are still in the hunt for the AFC West, but injuries and meager offensive showings are piling up. The Jets will keep winning.
Pick: Jets -10
At Detroit -8 Minnesota
This is the perfect bounce back game for Stafford. Minny’s secondary is a mess, and with Ponder likely to miss this game, the stars are aligned for a Lions victory.
Pick: Lions -8
New Orleans -3.5 At Tennessee
Tennessee may fancy themselves a tough team with a strong D and capable offense. And there’s no denying that Chris Johnson has finally found his stride, but even if the Titans can move the ball up and down the field, Drew Brees is playing too amazing to be denied a road victory. Go with the Saints.
Pick: Saints -3.5
At Miami -3 Philadelphia
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Miami. They started so terribly and yet here they are knocking out quality opponents on a weekly basis. These guys are playing with all kinds of heart, and you know with the type of turnaround they’ve had, they’re playing hard for their embattled coach. Andy Reid’s seat is getting pretty hot as well, but this just isn’t Philly’s year.
Pick: Dolphins -3
New England -8 At Washington
Brady v. Grossman. Rex may deliver a good stat line, but Brady will deliver the W.
Pick: Pats -8
Atlanta -2.5 At Carolina
If the Falcons want to make some noise this postseason, they can’t get tripped up by a high-flying outdoor team playing for pride. Michael Turner was a big disaapointment last week. So were Atlanta’s receivers. If Matt Ryan can get some help on the ground and some assistance from his receivers actually holding on to the ball, the Falcons should be okay.
Pick: Falcons -2.5
At Jacksonville PK Tampa Bay
Two teams with not much to play for. It’s a pick’em, and I’ll pick the team who needs to show up to keep their head coach from getting fired. With all the holes on the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs should have a chance to get their first win in awhile.
Pick: Bucs
San Francisco -4 At Arizona
Even if the Niners start resting starters, the second team should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Pick: 49ers -4
At Denver -3.5 Chicago
Remember last year in the playoffs when Caleb Hanie was the third string QB and he came in against Green Bay and actually made it a game for the Bears? Yea, no one else remembers either. The only thing people remember about Hanie is that he’s thrown six picks in the last two weeks. Six picks to two TDs isn’t gonna get it done. So the once mighty Bears now find themselves going into Denver as dogs. When the Broncos win, it’s usually by a field goal. It’s gonna be tough for the Bears to score points, but they should keep this game close. Still, they don’t have God on their side. I’m not betting against Tebow until the streak ends.
Pick: Broncos -3.5
At San Diego -7 Buffalo
The Chargers looked scary last week. Granted, it was against a team without a secondary, but Rivers has all his weapons back for the first time in a long time. The Bills are in a freefall. They got some good production out of CJ Spiller, but they just don’t feel like a team that can win anymore. Expect a lot of points.
Pick: Chargers -7
At Dallas -3.5 NY Giants
If Dallas wins this game, they pretty much lock down the division. The Giants went toe-to-toe with the champs last week and came up short. It’s been a tough few weeks for the G-men, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the Cowboys this year, they can certainly find a way to lose games. I like New York to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Pick: Giants +3.5
At Seattle -5.5 St. Louis
In a season full of unwatchable Monday night games, this may be the worst one yet. Edge goes to the Seahawks who’ve been surging, playing well at home and clamping up on D. They’re going against a third-string QB who’s never thrown an NFL pass, and that porous Rams rush defense should be very much afraid of what Marshawn Lynch is going to do, with or without a bag of Skittles to fuel him.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5
Week 13: 8-8
Season: 108-79-10
Dec 8th
Week 13 NFL Picks
DeSean Jackson redeems himself. Vince Young shows his value. Seattle plays tough at home but they’re just too banged up.
Philly -3
(0kay, so I whiffed on that Thursday Night pick. Turns out that there was no redemption for DeSean and no answer for Marshawn Lynch. On to the other picks…)
Buffalo is 4-1 at home. The Titans are finally running the ball well. A lot of the bad stuff you’ve seen from the Bills has come on the road. They actually looked pretty good before Stevie Johnson’s boneheaded celebration last week.
Bills -2
Caleb Hanie can compete and Orton isn’t ready to lead the Chiefs quite yet. Chicago wins at home.
Bears -7
Turns out Miami isn’t all that bad, but neither are the Raiders. Despite all the injuries, Oakland still gets it done. The Raiders need this game more.
Raiders +3.5
Pittsburgh got a scare last week, but this divisional game is too important to take lightly. The Bengals will rise to the challenge, but not enough to win.
Steelers -6.5
The Browns can shut down passing games, but the Ravens don’t need to rely on the pass to win.
Ravens -7
The Jets refuse to give up on their season. They’re like the anti-Eagles. Rex Grossman has elevated his play a bit, to the point where this team might still win a couple games. But the Jets are a streaky, emotional team. They’ll continue their winning ways.
Jets -7
It’s a good thing the Texans don’t need to throw the ball to win. Atlanta should have Michael Turner and Julio Jones ready to play, but despite containing big runners this season, the Falcons won’t be able to contain Houston’s ground game, even if its just a one-sided attack.
Texans +1.5
Josh Freeman is likely out for the Bucs. That opens the door for Cam Newton and company to get a much needed W.
Panthers +2
The Saints are in full on playoff mode. They look like the only team that can hang with the Packers in the NFC. The Lions were once intimidating, but they’ll be without Suh and a resurgent Kevin Smith. It’s a big spread, but Brees will help you cover.
Saints -9
I just can’t bet against Tebow. Not saying I’m betting for him, but he’s just got too much juju going on right now for you to bank on him losing. He won’t exploit the Vikings’ biggest weakness, but he’s just got that winningness factor that you have to love.
Broncos -1
It’s been a lost season for St. Louis. After losing the the Battle of the Brothers Harbaugh, the 49ers aren’t thinking playoffs. They’re thinking about pounding their next opponent. And pound them they will.
Niners -13.5
Kevin Kolb is back, but it doesn’t matter. This team can’t expect monster results from Beanie Wells every week. I like the Cowboys in this spot.
Cowboys -4.5
The Giants can bounce back from their Monday Night beating, but not against the best team in football.
Packers -6
New England will likely crush the Colts, but a 20 point spread is ridiculous. It makes you want to look for a reason – any reason – to pick Indy. I can’t find that reason.
Pats -20
Man the Chargers suck, but things are actually more dysfunctional in Jacksonville. They have no more corners, a new owner and 100 percent less Del Rio. Rivers finally has a game to remember.
Chargers -3
Week 12: 8-8
Season: 100-71-10
Dec 1st
Week 12 NFL Picks
I’m traveling in Australia so this week’s picks are lean and mean:
Green Bay -6.5 At Detroit
Pick: Packers -6.5
At Dallas -7 Miami
Pick: Cowboys -7
At Baltimore -3.5 San Francisco
Pick: Niners +3.5
At St. Louis -3 Arizona
Pick: Rams -3
At NY Jets -9 Buffalo
Pick: Jets -9
At Cincinnati -7 Cleveland
Pick: Bengals -7
Houston -3.5 At Jacksonville
Pick: Texans +3.5
Carolina -3 At Indianapolis
Pick: Panthers -3
At Tennessee -3 Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs +3
At Atlanta -9.5 Minnesota
Pick: Falcons -9.5
At Oakland -4 Chicago
Pick: Raiders -4
At Seattle -3.5 Washington
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
New England -3 At Philadelphia
Pick: Pats -3
At San Diego -6 Denver
Pick: Denver +6
Pittsburgh -10.5 At Kansas City
Pick: Steelers -10.5
At New Orleans -7 NY Giants
Pick: Saints -7
Week 11: 6-7-1
Season: 92-63-10
Nov 23rd
