Week 3 NFL Picks
At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco
AJ Green’s a big time, game-changing threat and Andy Dalton’s looking pretty comfortable at the helm. The Bengals D is a bit underrated as well. I still like the Niners though. They came damn close to upsetting the Cowboys and they’ve held opponents to a league-low 54.5 yards per game through two games this season. I’m going San Fran again this week.
Pick: Niners +2.5
New England -8.5 At Buffalo
Make no mistake, the Pats defense is a huge liability. All this talk about Brady throwing for over 7,000 yards this season hides the fact that New England’s defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL through two games. They’ve allowed an average of 479 per game, and they’re about to face a hot Buffalo team coming off a big comeback win. I think the Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and company are going to be able to move the ball well, but the Pats will still be able to answer. Start your Bills in fantasy, but keep your money on New England.
Pick: Pats -8.5
At New Orleans -4 Houston
If Houston can find a way to win this game, they have to be considered a top contender in the AFC. This game just feels like a shootout that the Texans won’t win. The Saints have a high-octane offense, and the Texans defense has been one of the toughest units in the game so far. Expect tons of scoring opportunities and look for the home team to hang on for the win.
Pick: Saints -4
At Philadelphia -7 NY Giants
Will Vick play? The NFL’s really stressed this whole concussion awareness thing, but Vick has practiced throughout the week, so look for him to suit up against the Giants. DeSean Jackson is also hurting, but even with the injury cloud hovering over these playmakers, I’ll take a hobbled Eagles team over a battered Giants squad any day of the week.
Pick: Eagles -7
At Cleveland -2.5 Miami
The Dolphins are 0-2 in a division where every other team is 2-0. It’s must-win time on Sunday, especially against a relatively weak opponent. Dolphins play desperate and get their first W.
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
At Tennessee -6.5 Denver
The Titans came out strong against the Ravens, but Kenny Brit’s hamstring may be acting up again. Hasselbeck has played sneakily well so far – 51 of 76 for 621 yards, three TDs, two picks and a QB rating of 94.2 through two games – but there have been plenty of plays where he’s just tossing the ball up for Britt and hoping for the best. If Britt’s slowed mb a nagging hammy, the Titans will need to get a lot more production out of Chris Johnson. CJ2K has a measly 77 yards through two games and he’s averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Yikes. The Broncos have a lot of injuries, but they should be getting back some key starters this week. D.J. Williams, Elvis Dumervil, Knowshon Moreno and Brandon Lloyd were all back at practice this week. I think Denver keeps it close, but the Titans pull away at home.
Pick: Titans -6.5
Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota
What’s this? The Lions are favorites on the road? You’ve seen what this team did in the first two weeks; steady defense, an explosive offense, playmakers on both sides of the ball. After an abysmal performance in Week 1, the Vikings seemed to right the ship last week. Then they let the win slip away. If Percy Harvin is not on the field for a majority of the team’s offense plays this week, someone should get fired. Either way, the Lions prove too much for the Viking to handle.
Pick: Lions -3.5
At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville
No one expected the Panthers to be this good on offense, but the team is still struggling to establish the run and maintain momentum on both sides of the ball. One way to get things right is to host a rookie QB starting his first NFL game. Pick the panthers to get their first W.
Pick: Panthers -3.5
At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City
The Chiefs are in full on panic mode. Cassell’s looked terrible. They lost their best defensive player in Week 1 and their most potent offensive weapon in Week 2. Travelling to San Diego to face a team that’s balanced on both sides of the ball isn’t going to help at all. Chiefs absorb another beatdown.
Pick: Chargers -14.5
NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland
I think this is one of the toughest games of the week to call. The Raiders aren’t going to be kicked around anymore. They’re playing good football and could easily be 2-0. The Jets had a gimmie last week, but the Cowboys did give them some trouble in Week 1. I’m going to go with the Raiders to cover at home. They may not win, but they’ll keep it close.
Pick: Raiders +3.5
Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis
You better believe that Harbaugh’s going to have his team ready to throw down this weekend. That Titans game was a wake-up call, and the Ravens are going to come out looking to make a statement against a team that can’t really get things going on either side of the ball.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta
I know the Falcons play poorly on the road, and it’s always hard to pick against a scrappy Tampa Bay team that always finds a way to win games, but I have to go Falcons here. They have more weapons and they look more poised to make a leap to the next level.
Pick: Falcons +1.5
Arizona -3.5 At Seattle
Seattle is not a good football team. In Pittsburgh, the Seahawks never even saw the Steelers’ side of the field until the fourth quarter. This team can’t pass, can’t run and they can’t stop the pass or the run. Sure, the Cardinals lost to the Redskins and yea, their secondary is terrible, but they’re better this team is better than Seattle.
Pick: Cardinals -3.5
Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago
Evaluating the Bears is a seesaw exercise week in and week out. They looked dominant against the Falcons and looked totally outmatched by the Saints. The team is probably somewhere in the middle – good enough to be top tier, but not good enough to be considered elite. The Packers had a first half scare against the Panthers, but the better team won in the end. The Packers are an elite squad that will find a way to get it done on the road.
Pick: Packers -3.5
Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis
The Steelers cover easy and keep building their confidence.
Pick: Steelers -10.5
At Dallas -5.5 Washington
I don’t care what anyone says, I don’t believe in the Redskins. Grossman and company deserve some credit for not playing terrible, horrible football, but this team is due for a loss. I picked the Niners to beat the Cowboys last week, but I didn’t account for Tony Romo’s late game heroics. The Cowboys may be banged up, but they still have the pieces in place to beat the Skins.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5
Last Week: 9-6-1
Season: 19-11-2
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