Sports
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks
At Houston -3 Cincinnati
The Texans are hitting the playoffs cold. After winning seven in a row from the end of October to mid-December, Houston dropped three straight games to close out the regular season. Yea, TJ Yates got injured and Arian Foster sat out Week 17, but the Texans enter the postseason with a clear lack of momentum.
The Bengals backed their way into the playoffs with some help. They came out flat against the Ravens last week, and Cincy’s D had all kinds of trouble containing Ray Rice. Arian Foster is going to be a challenge for this unit. Yates is healthy and the home crowd will be extra fired up for the first playoff game in franchise history. The Bengals have a great foundation for future success, but they’re going to get bounced out this week.
Pick: Texans -3
At New Orleans -11 Detroit
Remember the quick exit the Saints suffered when traveling to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs last season? You can bet it’s fresh on Sean Payton’s mind, too. And you know he’s prepping his team hard to avoid a trap game at home. This is the biggest spread of the week in what’s sure to be a shootout. The Saints can run when they want to and pass at will. The Lions are a bit more one-dimensional. They’ll put up a fight, but there’s just too many weapons for them to stop.
Pick: Saints -10.5
At NY Giants -3 Atlanta
The Giants are 4-4 at home this year. The Falcons are 4-4 on the road. The Giants have 11 sacks in the past two games. The Falcons have only allowed 26 sacks all season, sixth-best in the league. Both the Giants and the Falcons have top-tier passing games, with players who can stretch the field and pick up big chunks of yards. Eli Manning and Matt Ryan have tossed 29 touchdowns each, and both QBs are experiencing career-best seasons. The Falcons have a decent run D and the Giants are 29th in the league in rushing. The Giants have to be fired up after last week, but the Falcons are coming off a road stellar performance against a terrible Bucs squad. This should be the tightest matchup of the week, but I think Matt Ryan can finally win his first playoff game this week.
Pick: Falcons +3
Pittsburgh -8.5 At Denver
Big Ben is the oddest combination of super tough guy and injury embellishing diva. Back in the Coach Cowher days, Ben claimed to play an AFC Championship game with multiple broken toes. His coach reported that the injury wasn’t in fact that severe. There’s a similar thing going on in Pittsburgh right now, with Ben limping around claiming that he re-aggravated his high ankle sprain against Cleveland, and Tomlin reporting that his QB will be healthy and ready to roll in Denver. No one can question Ben’s toughness, but it’s hard to get a good read on the extensiveness of his injury. He certainly didn’t look anywhere near 100 percent in San Francisco or Cleveland. The Steelers lost Mendenhall to a torn ACL, but Isaac Redman should be a capable substitute as long as he can hang on to the ball. Now if Maurkice Pouncey doesn’t suit up, that’s a huge blow for the Steelers.
Tebowmanina has turned to Turnovermania in recent weeks, but Tebow’s received the green light to fling it on Sunday. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly blown teams out on the road this year, but this is a matchup that they should win. They’ve allowed the fewest passing yards per game this year and they’re going up against a team that averaged only 152.1 passing yards per game, second-worst in the league behind Jacksonville. I don’t anticipate this being a blow out, but even if the Broncos get four quarters of Tebow Time, it’s not going to be enough.
Pick: Steelers -8.5
Week 17: 7-8-1
Season: 136-113-12
Jan 5th
Week 17 NFL Picks
At Philadelphia -8.5 Washington
The Eagles are playing for pride with an eye on next year. They’re playing better football, despite playing for nothing.
Pick: Eagles -8.5
At Atlanta -10.5 Tampa Bay
The Bucs are going to lose their 10th straight game. The Falcons need to end the season on a high note after getting dismantled by Drew Brees.
Pick: Falcons -10.5
San Francisco -10.5 At St. Louis
The 49ers have nothing to play for, and even when they do, they have trouble scoring touchdowns in the redzone. Still, it’s the Rams. Kendall Hunter should be able to do enough to cover that big spread.
Pick: 49ers -10.5
At Minnesota -1.5 Chicago
Joe Webb’s fun to watch and Toby Gerhart can make plays in relief of AP, but I think the Bears are finally going to get that elusive Cutler-less victory.
Pick: Bears +1.5
Detroit -4 At Green Bay
Matt Flynn should be in by the 3rd quarter. The undefeated season dreams are over. Packers pull starters and Detroit sneaks away with a W.
Pick: Lions -4
At NY Giants -3 Dallas
I think this is a toss-up, but I like the Giants to win this min-playoff. The Cowboys always seem to find a way to choke. Gotta go with the home team here.
Pick: Giants -3
At New Orleans -7.5 Carolina
Drew Brees is going to keep flinging it. The Panthers should put up some serious yardage on the gorund, but I think the Saints are going to keep the gas pedal pushed.
Pick: Saints -7.5
Tennessee -2 At Houston
The Texans can’t treat this like a preseason game. Not after what happened the last couple weeks. Even if Arian Foster checks out early, the Texans should pull through.
Pick: Texans +2
Baltimore -2 At Cincinnati
The Bengals can turn the division upside down with a win at home. They can secure a playoff appearance and force the Ravens to hit the road. The Ravens seem to play down to the competition, especially on the road. Cincy will spoil Baltimore’s postseason bye week hopes.
Pick: Bengals +2
Pittsburgh -6.5 At Cleveland
Big Ben can play one quarter and still dominate this squad.
Pick: Steelers -6.5
At Jacksonville -3.5 Indianapolis
The Colts are going to rally their way out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
Pick: Colts +3.5
At Miami -3 NY Jets
Miami’s playing strong, but they’re rolling without Reggie Bush, who’s been lightening up for about a month. Sanchez has takien a lot of heat this week, but if can avoid big mistakes, the Jets D should handle the rest.
Pick: Jets +3
At New England -10.5 Buffalo
Memories of losing Wes Welker for the playoffs might prompt the Pats to sit starters, but the team needs to win to ensure that they lock down the number 1 seed. Still, with the potential for sitting key players on the table, I think the spread’s a bit too high.
Pick: Bills +10.5
At Oakland -3 San Diego
The Raiders are going to put the nail on the Norv Turner coffin. They’re getting healthy and they need the W.
Pick: Raiders -3
At Denver -3 Kansas City
The Chiefs can ruin things for the Broncos. Tebowmania has subsided, but the game is in Denver. If this game was in Arrowhead, I’d go with the Chiefs. But it’ll be a friendly, playoff type atmosphere at home for Tebow and the gang. They win, they’re in.
Pick: Broncos -3
At Arizona -3 Seattle
The Cards aren’t going down without a fight, but Seattle’s just better.
Pick: Seattle +3
Week 16: 8-8
Season: 129-105-11
Dec 31st
Week 16 NFL Picks
So I’m limping toward the end of the regular season, coming off my worst week of the year. Let’s see if we can right the ship a bit with some quality picks before the playoffs kick off.
Houston -6 At Indianapolis
Will the Colts win back to back games? No. Sure the Texans had a bit of a letdown last week, and yea I get that Donald Brown is playing hard despite people quitting all around him, but let’s be real here. The Texans are going to lock this up, run it out and win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Texans -6
At Kansas City -2 Oakland
Man, this game might be different if it was played in Oakland or if Todd Haley was still the head coach in KC, but did you see how the Chiefs reacted to Romeo? It’s kinda crazy. I understand that Oakland still has a chance to make the playoffs, but if the Chiefs show up at home like they did last week, all fired up and ready to rock, I don’t think the Raiders can hang with ‘em. With players already actively lobbying for Romeo to get the gig full time next year, I think the Chiefs take this one.
Pick: Chiefs -2
Denver -3 At Buffalo
The last time the Bills won was the day before Halloween. For all the talk about Tebowmania slowing down, remember that this team was hanging with the Pats before three turnovers derailed everything. The Denver D showed some cracks last week, but that’s to be expected. CJ Spiller has been a shot in the arm for Buffalo, but it’s too little, too late.
Pick: Denver -3
At Tennessee -7.5 Jacksonville
Blaine Gabbert’s not good. He’s completing just 50.6 percent of his passes and he has a QB rating of 65.6 on the year, the worst in the NFL. I get that he doesn’t have the protection or a single decent receiver to throw to, but the guy looks a little flustered. He’s thrown 10 picks and 11 TDs. In the last three weeks, he’s been responsible for five picks and five fumbles. The Titans aren’t a dominant team, but they don’t have to be. If the mistakes keep piling on for Gabbert, they’ll win (and cover) by default.
Pick: Titans -7.5
At Cincinnati -4 Arizona
The Cards have been a huge surprise in the second half of the season. They started 1-6, won six of their last seven, and now sit at an even .500. They’re not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs just yet, either. The Cards have found ways to win games late, and their backup QB John Skelton is a big reason why. Kolb’s sucked it up before getting hurt and now he’s ready to play again. The Wiz should stick with Skelton. It’s weird that this seemingly uninteresting game has playoff implications for both teams. The Bengals close the year out with two home games – Cards and Ravens. They’re currently vying for that final wildcard spot, and they need Ws to hold off the Jets. With both teams needing to win to get in the tourney, I think the home team gets a bit of an edge here. AJ Green has an ailing shoulder, but there’s no way he misses this game. He’s gonna show up big time against this suspect secondary.
Pick: Bengals -4
At New England -9.5 Miami
Not sure what to make of this game. Is Reggie Bush really that amazing? Has Miami’s defense really gotten that much better? Can the Pats maintain their TE-heavy pass attack while still surrendering so many big plays on D? New England is 5-1 at home this year and the Dolphins have won five of their last seven. I don’t think this game is going to be a blowout. The Pats will likely win, but I’m iffy on the spread. Going to give Brady the benefit of the doubt here.
Pick: Pats -9.5
At Baltimore -13 Cleveland
I really don’t think the Ravens are an elite, top-3 NFL team. In all the power rankings you see, Baltimore frequently gets slotted over a team like the Saints. That’s just not accurate. The Ravens are good, but they can get exposed, just like they did last week. This isn’t a team that’s designed to play from behind. If the Browns can go up big early… wait, they can’t. If they could this might be an interesting game, but Seneca, Hillis and that anemic offense can’t put the Ravens in a hole early, so they can’t limit Ray Rice, and they’re not going to win. I think the spread’s a tad too high though.
Pick: Browns +13
At NY Jets -3 NY Giants
The Giants are a hard team to root for. Just when you think they’re clicking, they turn in a stinker like last week. There’s been a ton of shit talking leading up to the Battle of New York, but I think the edge goes to the Jets. The Giants have losed five of their last six, and that one win was by a three point margin. If the Jets avoid the sloppy mistakes that plagued them last week, they should be able to contain the G-men.
Pick: Jets -3
At Washington -6.5 Minnesota
I thought we were cool, Percy Harvin. But no, you had to put up a donut during a critical fantasy week. No matter. The Vikings have allowed the most points this season (406). They got shredded by Drew Brees and they’re bad enough to get shredded by Rex Grossman.
Pick: Skins -6.5
At Carolina -7 Tampa Bay
Carolina’s got a brighter future ahead of them. The Bucs stopped caring awhile ago. I’ll take the home team with the more dynamic playmakers over the team that lost eight straight and ranks near the bottom of every defensive stat category.
Pick: Panthers -7
At Pittsburgh -15 St. Louis
The spread’s just too big. The Steelers hate covering big spreads even with Big Ben under center. Batch has preformed decent in the past when called upon, but he looked kinda shaky coming in during that Browns game. I fully expect St. Louis to lose. The Steelers are going to force the run and have success. They’ll get the W, but I doubt they’ll cover.
Pick: Rams +15
At Detroit -2.5 San Diego
The Lions have won two in a row, but now they play a team that’s on fire. The streaky Chargers have owned December. They have a more balanced offense, a better defense and they’re going to beat the Lions in Detroit.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
San Francisco -2.5 At Seattle
Marshawn can’t be stopped. Even if he doesn’t get a score on the ground against a team that’s yet to allow a rushing TD all year, he’ll still put up decent numbers. The Niners still have problems putting up points. The Steelers couldn’t take advantage of that fact, cause they were too busy turning the ball over. In game that’s sure to feature a lot of field goals, I like the home team with the points.
Pick: Seattle +2.5
At Dallas -2 Philadelphia
The Dream Team finally woke up, but they need help if they want to keep playing in two weeks. The Cowboys got back on track against a sorry Bucs team, but if you look at their last few games, there’s not really an impressive win on the schedule. Sure the Cowboys crushed the Eagles in Week 8, but that was back when the Eagles lost all the time. I think the team’s just more dangerous now, and Dallas has got some questions at RB. I’m going with Philly.
Pick: Eagles +2
At Green Bay -13 Chicago
The Bears are pulling the plug on the Caleb Hanie experiment. One of the McCown brothers will be starting for Chicago. Not sure which one. I don’t think it matters though. The Packers are not going to sit people for a rivalry game like this, especially after suffering their first loss of the year.
Pick: Packers -13
At New Orleans -6.5 Atlanta
I believe in Drew Brees. I believe this team is not going to let up. This game should provide plenty of scoring opportunities, but I think Brees, Jimmy Graham, the deep core of WRs who just show up when needed and like whatever combo of RBs they roll with will do better. Ryan’s not going to play poorly, but the Falcon’s running game just ain’t what it was a few weeks ago. Turner looks tired. The Saints are just more potent.
Pick: Saints -6.5
Week 15: 5-10-1
Season: 121-97-11
Dec 22nd
Week 15 NFL Picks
At Atlanta -11 Jacksonville
The game is in Atlanta, the Falcons need the W and the Jags secondary is a mess. Sure, MJD is
Pick: Falcons -11
Dallas -7 At Tampa Bay
The Bucs gave up last week. The Cowboys found another way to lose late. Look for Dallas to get back on track against a sinking ship.
Pick: Cowboys -7
At NY Giants -7 Washington
If you’re desperate for a QB in fantasy football, Rex might help you out against this suspect secondary. But if you want to chose the right side of this shootout, go with the G-men.
Pick: Giants -7
Green Bay -14 At Kansas City
If you read between the lines of all the comments coming out of Green Bay, the Packers have no intention of letting up. They’re going to be going full throttle against Kyle Orton with a broken finger or rookie QB Ricky Stanzi. Even if Matt Flynn makes an appearance, the Packers should cover.
Pick: Packers -14
New Orleans -7 At Minnesota
Brees vs. a mediocre secondary, that’s a juicy matchup in any week. AP may be back in action, but he can’t match points with the Saints single-handedly. Percy Harvin’s finally getting the looks he deserves in this offense, but Ponder’s made his fair share of mistakes with the football. I don’t see the Saints easing up here. They’re going to exploit a sweet opportunity and put up a ton of points.
Pick: Saints -7
At Chicago -3.5 Seattle
Caleb Hanie is 0-3 as a starter. With Cutler and Forte in the mix, the Bears looked like a playoff lock. Now they’re on the bubble. It’s must-win time, and the Bears get a home game. Seattle has made some noise late in the year, but not on the road. Only two of the team’s six wins have come on the road, and one of those W’s was against St. Louis. Chicago should be able to semi-contain Marshawn Lynch, who’s been in beast mode for weeks now. Seattle’s D is decent, but the Bears are due. The .5 hurts in what’s sure to be a low scoring game, but you gotta take the Bears.
Pick: Bears -3.5
At Buffalo PK Miami
Miami’s late surge wasn’t enough to save Sparano. Which is kinda sad. I mean, you can’t start 0-7 and expect to keep your job, but the Fins battled back. They got manhandled by the Eagles last week, and their head coach got the boot. Now the team travels to Buffalo to face a Bills squad that started the season 5-2 and went on to lose six in a row. During that stretch, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown six TDs and nine INTs. In last week’s beatdown in San Diego, Fitzpatrick threw two picks and didn’t find the endzone once. This is a true coin flip situation, and Vegas knows it. I’m going with the home team redemption story over the team that just dumped their head coach.
Pick: Bills
At Houston -6.5 Carolina
The Panthers can’t stop the run. Like, at all. TJ Yates played fantastic last week, and he’s got two top-tier backs to lean on. Start Ben Tate if you can and enjoy the ground and pound game plan. Houston wins easy.
Pick: Texans -6.5
Tennessee -6.5 At Indianapolis
Caldwell needs a win or he’s out. I don’t think it’s gonna happen. The Titans stifled the Saints for a couple of quarters. They should be able to contain a winless team.
Pick: Titans -6.5
Cincinnati -6.5 At St. Louis
The Bengals aren’t out of the playoff mix just yet, and the Rams are just terrible. Start your Bengals players and look for Cincy’s D to put up some solid fantasy numbers against fill-in journeyman QB Kellen Clemens
Pick: Bengals -6.5
Detroit -1 At Oakland
Tight contest with lots of scoring should be expected here. Carson’s throwing too many picks and Stafford’s got his groove back. I think the edge goes to the Lions.
Pick: Lions -1
New England -6.5 At Denver
Brady doesn’t play well in Denver. He’s 1-5 when playing in Mile High conditions (1-6 if you count the playoffs). The Pats offense is obviously dangerous, and the Broncos haven’t faced a decent QB since they lost to Detroit in Week 8. Six wins later, Denver is sitting atop of the AFC West. If the Broncos can use their top-ranked rushing attack to shorten the game and keep Brady off the field, Tebow may be in position for another 4th quarter comeback. Take Denver and the points, pray that things don’t get out of hand during the first three quarters and hope for some more late game magic.
Pick: Broncos +6.5
At Philadelphia -3 NY Jets
The Jets need it more. Philly finally got a win against Miami, but the Jets are going to run all over this team.
Pick: Jets +3
At Arizona -6.5 Cleveland
The Cards are hot, and they’ve played themselves into long shot playoff status. The Browns are rolling without McCoy, after the young QB got lit up by James Harrison last Thursday. Seneca Wallace came in for one play and threw a sharp pass before McCoy returned to throw a game clinching interception to William Gay. Wallace gets the start and could provide a spark, but I like Arizona to cover.
Pick: Cards -6.5
Baltimore -2.5 At San Diego
Rivers has all his weapons and he’s putting up points and minimizing mistakes. This is the last challenging game on Baltimore’s schedule. With the Steelers in the rear view, they can’t let up. The Chargers likely won’t make the playoffs, but this team loves late season wins. I think they’ll edge out the Ravens at home.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
At San Francisco -3 Pittsburgh
The 49ers haven’t played a good team since Baltimore, and they lost that game. The Steelers won’t run the ball on this team, but if Big Ben plays (and with the AFC playoff picture being so tight, I don’t think he has a choice), then Pittsburgh superior air attack should be able to best San Francisco’s conservative offense and strong D.
Pick: Steelers +3
Week 14: 8-8
Season: 116-87-10
Dec 15th
Week 14 NFL Picks
At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland
If there’s one thing the Steelers hate, it’s covering big spreads. But the pressures on for the team to separate from the rest of the AFC pack. Baltimore owns the tie-breaker with two wins over the Steelers. The Texans also beat the Steelers, so even at 9-3, this team is in must-win mode. Their chances for the playoffs look good, so even against a stiff pass defense, the Steelers should be able to win and win big.
Pick: Steelers -14
At Baltimore -16.5 Indianapolis
Ravens win big and Colts don’t do enough in garbage time to cover this week’s massive spread deficit.
Pick: Ravens -16.5
At Cincinnati -3 Houston
The Texans don’t need an elite QB to beat a second-tier AFC team. The Bengals will put up points, but the Houston will control the pace of the game with their relentless rushing attack.
Pick: Texans +3
At Green Bay -11 Oakland
The spread’s a bit large, but the Packers can cover. The Raiders are still hurting and Green Bay just can’t be stopped.
Pick: Packers -11
At NY Jets -10 Kansas City
The Jets are in full-blown end of the regular season mode. They always finish hot. The Chiefs are still in the hunt for the AFC West, but injuries and meager offensive showings are piling up. The Jets will keep winning.
Pick: Jets -10
At Detroit -8 Minnesota
This is the perfect bounce back game for Stafford. Minny’s secondary is a mess, and with Ponder likely to miss this game, the stars are aligned for a Lions victory.
Pick: Lions -8
New Orleans -3.5 At Tennessee
Tennessee may fancy themselves a tough team with a strong D and capable offense. And there’s no denying that Chris Johnson has finally found his stride, but even if the Titans can move the ball up and down the field, Drew Brees is playing too amazing to be denied a road victory. Go with the Saints.
Pick: Saints -3.5
At Miami -3 Philadelphia
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Miami. They started so terribly and yet here they are knocking out quality opponents on a weekly basis. These guys are playing with all kinds of heart, and you know with the type of turnaround they’ve had, they’re playing hard for their embattled coach. Andy Reid’s seat is getting pretty hot as well, but this just isn’t Philly’s year.
Pick: Dolphins -3
New England -8 At Washington
Brady v. Grossman. Rex may deliver a good stat line, but Brady will deliver the W.
Pick: Pats -8
Atlanta -2.5 At Carolina
If the Falcons want to make some noise this postseason, they can’t get tripped up by a high-flying outdoor team playing for pride. Michael Turner was a big disaapointment last week. So were Atlanta’s receivers. If Matt Ryan can get some help on the ground and some assistance from his receivers actually holding on to the ball, the Falcons should be okay.
Pick: Falcons -2.5
At Jacksonville PK Tampa Bay
Two teams with not much to play for. It’s a pick’em, and I’ll pick the team who needs to show up to keep their head coach from getting fired. With all the holes on the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs should have a chance to get their first win in awhile.
Pick: Bucs
San Francisco -4 At Arizona
Even if the Niners start resting starters, the second team should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Pick: 49ers -4
At Denver -3.5 Chicago
Remember last year in the playoffs when Caleb Hanie was the third string QB and he came in against Green Bay and actually made it a game for the Bears? Yea, no one else remembers either. The only thing people remember about Hanie is that he’s thrown six picks in the last two weeks. Six picks to two TDs isn’t gonna get it done. So the once mighty Bears now find themselves going into Denver as dogs. When the Broncos win, it’s usually by a field goal. It’s gonna be tough for the Bears to score points, but they should keep this game close. Still, they don’t have God on their side. I’m not betting against Tebow until the streak ends.
Pick: Broncos -3.5
At San Diego -7 Buffalo
The Chargers looked scary last week. Granted, it was against a team without a secondary, but Rivers has all his weapons back for the first time in a long time. The Bills are in a freefall. They got some good production out of CJ Spiller, but they just don’t feel like a team that can win anymore. Expect a lot of points.
Pick: Chargers -7
At Dallas -3.5 NY Giants
If Dallas wins this game, they pretty much lock down the division. The Giants went toe-to-toe with the champs last week and came up short. It’s been a tough few weeks for the G-men, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the Cowboys this year, they can certainly find a way to lose games. I like New York to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Pick: Giants +3.5
At Seattle -5.5 St. Louis
In a season full of unwatchable Monday night games, this may be the worst one yet. Edge goes to the Seahawks who’ve been surging, playing well at home and clamping up on D. They’re going against a third-string QB who’s never thrown an NFL pass, and that porous Rams rush defense should be very much afraid of what Marshawn Lynch is going to do, with or without a bag of Skittles to fuel him.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5
Week 13: 8-8
Season: 108-79-10
Dec 8th
Week 13 NFL Picks
DeSean Jackson redeems himself. Vince Young shows his value. Seattle plays tough at home but they’re just too banged up.
Philly -3
(0kay, so I whiffed on that Thursday Night pick. Turns out that there was no redemption for DeSean and no answer for Marshawn Lynch. On to the other picks…)
Buffalo is 4-1 at home. The Titans are finally running the ball well. A lot of the bad stuff you’ve seen from the Bills has come on the road. They actually looked pretty good before Stevie Johnson’s boneheaded celebration last week.
Bills -2
Caleb Hanie can compete and Orton isn’t ready to lead the Chiefs quite yet. Chicago wins at home.
Bears -7
Turns out Miami isn’t all that bad, but neither are the Raiders. Despite all the injuries, Oakland still gets it done. The Raiders need this game more.
Raiders +3.5
Pittsburgh got a scare last week, but this divisional game is too important to take lightly. The Bengals will rise to the challenge, but not enough to win.
Steelers -6.5
The Browns can shut down passing games, but the Ravens don’t need to rely on the pass to win.
Ravens -7
The Jets refuse to give up on their season. They’re like the anti-Eagles. Rex Grossman has elevated his play a bit, to the point where this team might still win a couple games. But the Jets are a streaky, emotional team. They’ll continue their winning ways.
Jets -7
It’s a good thing the Texans don’t need to throw the ball to win. Atlanta should have Michael Turner and Julio Jones ready to play, but despite containing big runners this season, the Falcons won’t be able to contain Houston’s ground game, even if its just a one-sided attack.
Texans +1.5
Josh Freeman is likely out for the Bucs. That opens the door for Cam Newton and company to get a much needed W.
Panthers +2
The Saints are in full on playoff mode. They look like the only team that can hang with the Packers in the NFC. The Lions were once intimidating, but they’ll be without Suh and a resurgent Kevin Smith. It’s a big spread, but Brees will help you cover.
Saints -9
I just can’t bet against Tebow. Not saying I’m betting for him, but he’s just got too much juju going on right now for you to bank on him losing. He won’t exploit the Vikings’ biggest weakness, but he’s just got that winningness factor that you have to love.
Broncos -1
It’s been a lost season for St. Louis. After losing the the Battle of the Brothers Harbaugh, the 49ers aren’t thinking playoffs. They’re thinking about pounding their next opponent. And pound them they will.
Niners -13.5
Kevin Kolb is back, but it doesn’t matter. This team can’t expect monster results from Beanie Wells every week. I like the Cowboys in this spot.
Cowboys -4.5
The Giants can bounce back from their Monday Night beating, but not against the best team in football.
Packers -6
New England will likely crush the Colts, but a 20 point spread is ridiculous. It makes you want to look for a reason – any reason – to pick Indy. I can’t find that reason.
Pats -20
Man the Chargers suck, but things are actually more dysfunctional in Jacksonville. They have no more corners, a new owner and 100 percent less Del Rio. Rivers finally has a game to remember.
Chargers -3
Week 12: 8-8
Season: 100-71-10
Dec 1st
Week 12 NFL Picks
I’m traveling in Australia so this week’s picks are lean and mean:
Green Bay -6.5 At Detroit
Pick: Packers -6.5
At Dallas -7 Miami
Pick: Cowboys -7
At Baltimore -3.5 San Francisco
Pick: Niners +3.5
At St. Louis -3 Arizona
Pick: Rams -3
At NY Jets -9 Buffalo
Pick: Jets -9
At Cincinnati -7 Cleveland
Pick: Bengals -7
Houston -3.5 At Jacksonville
Pick: Texans +3.5
Carolina -3 At Indianapolis
Pick: Panthers -3
At Tennessee -3 Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs +3
At Atlanta -9.5 Minnesota
Pick: Falcons -9.5
At Oakland -4 Chicago
Pick: Raiders -4
At Seattle -3.5 Washington
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
New England -3 At Philadelphia
Pick: Pats -3
At San Diego -6 Denver
Pick: Denver +6
Pittsburgh -10.5 At Kansas City
Pick: Steelers -10.5
At New Orleans -7 NY Giants
Pick: Saints -7
Week 11: 6-7-1
Season: 92-63-10
Nov 23rd
Week 11 NFL Picks
NY Jets -4.5 At Denver
Oh that Tim Tebow, so magical, so unconventional, so unable to complete more than a handful of passes a game. Denver’s tailored their entire offensive approach to the guy. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. If McGahee’s out, it’s going to be hard for Denver to hang with the Jets. The Broncos are still in the playoff race in the dismal AFC West, but they’ll take a step back this week.
Pick: Jets -4.5
At Atlanta -6 Tennessee
The Titans bounced back big time and brought the Chiefs back down to reality last week. I don’t think they can handle the Falcons at home though. Remember what Houston and Pittsburgh did to this team? It’s one thing to hang with teams that aren’t all that explosive offensively, but the Falcons, who are coming off a crucial overtime loss to the Saints, are going to bring the Titans back down to Earth.
Pick: Falcons -6
At Miami -2 Buffalo
Since when did Reggie Bush morph into a pro version of his former college self? And what the hell happened to the Bills? The Buffalo bandwagon is beyond empty after the Bills went 1-3 in their last four games (with the one win coming against a horrendous Redskins team). How will the team respond after losing by 37 to Dallas? Coach Chan Gailey said his team is “more of a pretender than a contender” at this point. The Fins have won two in a row and the Bills have lost two in a row. Something’s gotta give here. I feel like the Miami magic can’t be sustained, and I think the Bills are due for a W.
Pick: Bills +2
At Baltimore -7 Cincinnati
In Week 7, Ray Rice received only eight carries and the Ravens lost on the road to the lowly Jags. You’d think the Baltimore brain trust would avoid skimping on the Rice carries going forward, but last week, Rice logged only five rushing attempts, and you guessed it, the Ravens lost on the road to an inferior team. That just can’t happen. This guy’s your best skill player and needs to be a big part of the game plan. The Bengals D holds teams to just 86.8 rushing yards a game, but so what. Expect large servings of Rice in this matchup, defense be damned. The Bengals are hitting the tough/most-important part of their schedule. They lost to Pittsburgh last week and they almost lost AJ Green in the process. Even if Green does suit up, I think the Ravens are due for a rebound game at home, and memories of Cincy’s recent division lead will soon be erased for good.
Pick: Ravens -7
Jacksonville -1 At Cleveland
Cleveland’s offense is so very, very hard to watch. The Jags aren’t exactly lightening it up, but the Browns are just allergic to touchdowns. If Jacksonville can find the endzone, even once, it’ll probably be enough.
Pick: Jags -1
At Minnesota -1.5 Oakland
Carson Palmer is making Hue Jackson look like a genius. The Vikings can’t stop anybody. Palmer’s going to have a huge game. He’s got a good thing going with Denarius Moore, and even if DMC is sidelined, Michael Bush is a more than suitable sub.
Pick: Raiders +1.5
At Detroit -7 Carolina
Stafford had a meltdown game last week. He broke a finger, but he’s been practicing and is expected to play against the Panthers. Maurice Morris hasn’t been that bad filling in for Jahvid Best. He has to like his chances this week, going up against the 28th ranked run defense in the league. The Panthers looked flat last week, but they should be able to put up more points on Detroit. I think there will be a ton of scoring opportunities in this game, but Detroit will pull ahead and run it out.
Pick: Lions -7
At Green Bay -13.5 Tampa Bay
Just go ahead and pick the Packers. The spread is pretty irrelevant. They’ll cover, bro.
Pick: Packers -13.5
Dallas -8 At Washington
The Cowboys are clicking. The Skins aren’t. There’s just too many weapons for Dallas and not enough firepower for Washington. Sure both defenses aren’t pushovers, but I like the Cowboys to win this important division matchup.
Pick: Cowboys -8
At San Francisco -9.5 Arizona
The spread’s a bit high, but the Niners are really good at covering this year. Like, amazingly good. San Francisco is 8-0-1 against the spread this season. That’s the longest unbeaten ATS streak to start a season since 1980. The Niners are going to take the run game away and force Skelton to throw the ball. He may connect with Larry Fitzgerald for a few amazing catches, but that just won’t be enough. Don’t be afraid of the big spread.
Pick: 49ers -9.5
At St. Louis -2 Seattle
Seattle showed up at home and took down the Ravens. The Rams aren’t top-tier competition, but the Seahawks don’t win games on the road (that Week 5 matchup against the Giants being the exception). Look for the Rams offense to show a bit more spark this week as the team looks for their third win in four games.
Pick: Rams -2
At Chicago -3.5 San Diego
Philip Rivers has been a turnover machine, and now he’s missing half of his offensive line. Julius Peppers should have a big day. The Chargers are riding a four game losing streak while the Bears have won four in a row. I don’t think San Diego is just going to roll over here, but Chicago’s playing good ball all around and the Chargers are not.
Pick: Bears -3.5
At NY Giants -3 Philadelphia
Will Vick play or not? Does it matter? The Eagles are no longer relevant, but the Giants still have a bunch to play for. With the Cowboys surging, the Giants need a W to maintain their lead in the NFC East. The Eagles may put up a good fight, but this game is more important to the Giants.
Pick: Giants -3
At New England -14 Kansas City
Maybe this Palko kid can play, maybe not. But if you take a guy who’s attempted 13 career passes and you put him in a primetime matchup against a New England team that dominates at home and is coming off a big divisional win that snapped a two game losing streak, I’m going to lean towards the Pats, even with a two touchdown spread.
Pick: Pats -14
Week 10: 10-6
Season: 86-56-9
Nov 17th
Week 10 NFL Picks
At San Diego -7 Oakland
The Chargers have lost three in a row, and when they do win games, they don’t win by a wide margin. In four wins this year, San Diego’s average margin of victory is 6.25. That includes a 10 point win over the lowly Dolphins. This isn’t a team that blows people out. The Raiders and the Chiefs are also 4-4, so this division is up for grabs. Carson Palmer has looked decent for the Raiders, but he’s also thrown six picks in his six quarters as the starting QB in Oakland. McFadden is out for Oakland, Matthews is back for San Diego. The Broncos rushed for almost 300 yards against Oakland on Sunday.
Pick: Chargers -7
Pittsburgh -3 At Cincinnati
Tough loss last week for the Steelers, but the Ravens got it done. They swept the regular season series and pushed the Steelers into third place in the division. The Ravens own the tie-breaker should Baltimore and Pittsburgh finish with the same record, but Baltimore currently shares first place with the Bengals. The Bengals play four division games in a row over the next four weeks, including two games against Pittsburgh. We’re about to find out if Cincy’s feel good story is for real. I think the Bengals are a legit team, but I like the Steelers here. They’re coming off a tough loss and they can’t afford a two-game slide, not in this division. But the Steelers are going to have a hard time running the ball against a Bengals team that’s allowed only 84.5 rushing yards per game. Big Ben will need to connect with his young wideouts often and avoid throwing those game-changing interceptions that he likes to toss from time to time.
Pick: Steelers -3
At Kansas City -3 Denver
After riding high on a four game winning streak, the Chiefs got dismantled by a winless team last week. The Dolphins sacked Cassel five times and didn’t let a single Chief cross the goal line. Denver ran all over Oakland, with Willis McGahee leading the way with 163 yards and two scores. Tebow threw two TDs and added 118 yards on the ground. He actually had a respectable passer rating, too (98.1). As soon as you think the Broncos are out of it, they find a way to win some games. But I think the Dolphins loss is going to wake up KC. They win at home.
Pick: Chiefs -3
Jacksonville -3 At Indianapolis
Someone’s gotta win this unwatchable game. The Jags score a league-worst 12.2 points per game, but MJD loves running against the Colts. He should be in line for a big game against the 31st ranked defense against the run.
Pick: Jags -3
At Dallas -5.5 Buffalo
I like what the Cowboys are doing. The defense palys hard, they’re getting all kinds of production out of dynamic workhorse DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo’s putting together a pretty decent year. Even with Miles Austin out, Romo’s going to turn in another strong effort. The Bills disappeared in the 3rd quarter of last week’s game against the Jets. A home win feels right here.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5
Houston -3 At Tampa Bay
The Texans are putting on a clinic on how to run the rock in this league. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Foster or Tate behind that line, Houston can run the rock on anyone. It’s like this team doesn’t even miss Andre Johnson. With an improved D and unstoppable ground game, the Texans should take out the Bucs in Tampa Bay.
Pick: Texans -3
At Carolina -3 Tennessee
The Titans look terrible lately. When they’re down, they’re really down and even when they’re up, they find a way to blow leads. Chris Johnson showed some spark last week, and he should have an opportunity to put up big numbers against the Panthers, but something tells me it won’t be enough. Carolina only has two wins, but they sure can move the ball. After a hot start, Tennesee’s D looked pretty strong, but as the competition grew stiffer, this defensive unit started moving back toward the middle of the pack. Carolina has more firepower no matter what CJ2K does.
Pick: Panthers -3
At Miami -3.5 Washington
The Fins won a game! Now they get a team that’s averaging less than 13 points over its last six games. Miami’s gotten solid production out of Reggie Bush for two straight weeks. I don’t think Washington’s going to dink and dunk their way to a road win here.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
At Atlanta PK New Orleans
Drew Brees vs. Atlanta’s secondary? I don’t care where this game is being played, I like that matchup.
Pick: Saints
At Chicago -2.5 Detroit
Man the Bears looked good against the Eagles. Forte did his thing, but Cutler’s looking sharp as well. He’s got Earl Bennett in the mix and he’s getting the protection he needs to scan the field and get the ball out.
Pick: Bears -2.5
At Cleveland -2.5 St. Louis
It’s amazing that the Browns have three wins. They’re rank near the bottom of the league in rushing yards and passing yards per game. Their pass defense is the lone bright spot, but teams have averaged 144 yards per game on the ground against Cleveland. I like S-Jax to play big and give the Rams a much needed W.
Pick: Rams +2.5
At Philadelphia -14 Arizona
So much for Kolb’s return to Philly game; he’s out and Skelton’s in. Skelton actually played not too shabby while filling in for the injured starter, but Kolb’s season, like Arizona’s season, has been a big disappointment. The Eagles need to basically win out to be part of the playoff picture. The Cards got the W last week on a punt return TD in overtime. The Eagles season has been a big letdown, but for one week, they can look like the dominant team they were supposed to be.
Pick: Eagles -14
Baltimore -6.5 At Seattle
The Ravens aren’t all that on the road, but last week’s win in Pittsburgh should give Baltimore the momentum they need to cover against a two-win team playing at home.
Pick: Ravens -6.5
At San Francisco -3.5 NY Giants
The Giants are really good, but I love the Niners this year, especially at home. They can stop the run, prevent points and keep games close. The Giants have played sharp, but they’re traveling across the country to play a team that always keeps it close.
Pick: Niners -3.5
At NY Jets -1.5 New England
The Jets picked apart the Bills last week and the Pats have looked extra vulnerable of late. If you factor in the Revis on Welker effect, the Pats might have a difficult time winning on the road.
Pick: Jets -1.5
At Green Bay -13.5 Minnesota
Green Bay scores a league-best 34.4 points per game. The Vikings rank 25th in the league in points allowed (24.9). Sorry Ponder, the Packers are going to cover easily.
Pick: Packers -13.5
Week 9: 8-6
Season: 75-50-9 ATS
Nov 10th
Week 9 NFL Picks
Atlanta -7 At Indianapolis
The Colts rank 31st in the league against the run, and the Falcons have been dialing up heavy doses of Michael Turner in recent weeks. Add in a healthy Julio Jones, and the Falcons should be able to handle a winless team that hasn’t been in a close game in weeks.
Pick: Falcons -7
At New Orleans -8 Tampa Bay
The NFC South features three teams that could make some noise in the playoffs. The “youngry” Bucs are streaky as hell, and the Saints have lost two straight. Blount is back for Tampa Bay, but I think the edge has to go to the home team here. Remember, the Bucs beat the Saints by three points earlier this year, but the Saints tend to crush people in the dome.
Pick: Saints -8
At Houston -10.5 Cleveland
The Texans have only lost once at home this season. The Browns offense is anemic at best, and it sounds like Hillis reinjured his hammy in practice this week. While Cleveland is pretty solid in defending the pass, the Browns are so-so at best against the run. Arian Foster has averaged 161.8 yards from scrimmage the past five games. Expect heavy doses of Foster as Houston wins easy.
Pick: Texans -10.5
At Buffalo -1.5 NY Jets
The Jets haven’t won a game on the road this season, and the Bills are just a hard team to root against. They’ve lost two games this season by a combined total of six points. The Jets have lost on the road to Oakland, Baltimore and New England, and those games weren’t really close. Sanchez should have a decent game, but I love Buffalo here. It’s a big opportunity for the 5-2 Bills to show that they’re first place status in the AFC East is legit.
Pick: Bills -1.5
At Kansas City -4 Miami
The Chiefs have won four straight after starting the season 0-3. The Dolphins are still searching for their first win of the year. As hard as Miami is playing, you just get the feeling that the Chiefs are working with some extra good vibe ju-ju right now. Fear the Haley beard and go with the home team that has all the momentum.
Pick: Chiefs -4
San Francisco -3.5 At Washington
All the 49ers do is win games and cover spreads. The John Beck era in D.C. has looked terrible. With a conservative approach on offense and a nasty streak on D, the Niners just need to play their game and watch the Skins implode on their own.
Pick: Niners -3.5
At Dallas -11.5 Seattle
This Cowboys team is frustrating as hell. One week their going toe-to-toe with New England and the next week they’re getting blown out by the Eagles. Romo needs to get on the same page with his receivers. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin were both held without a catch in the first half last week. Seattle surrenders 237.1 yards per game through the air, but Eli Manning and Big Ben tore up this defense. If Romo can sync up with his receivers this week, he could be in line for a big game. The spread is huge, but so is the urgency for the Cowboys to bounce back.
Pick: Cowboys -11.5
At Oakland -7.5 Denver
Carson Palmer says he’s got the offense down. We’ll see about that. Guy looked rusty as hell in his first game back. Darren McFadden is likely out, but Michael Bush is no slouch. He’s no DMC, but he can carry the load. Denver sucks. Tebow can’t get it done and everyone knows this.
Pick: Raiders -7.5
At Tennessee -3 Cincinnati
The Bengals make big plays on D and they play well on the road. Their only road loss was to the Orton-led Broncos in Week 2, who barely hung on to win by two points. The Titans have had an up and down season, and their running game has left much to be desired. The Bengals have held opponents to 85.4 yards per game on the ground, second best in the league. As long Dalton has a relatively mistake-free game, the Bengals should be able to win this one.
Pick: Bengals +3
At Arizona -3.5 St. Louis
Kevin Kolb was supposed to be the answer in Arizona, but it just hasn’t worked out that way. Now he’s hurt and there’s a good chance that John Skelton will get the nod. Starting four games last season, Skelton completed only 47.6 percent of his passes. His QB rating was 62.3. The Rams are coming off a huge upset win against the Saints. Steven Jackson rushed for 159 yards and two scores and AJ Feeley managed the game. With Bradford likely to sit again, expect S-Jax to carry the load for St. Louis. The QB that makes the least mistakes wins. I say it’s the Rams.
Pick: Rams +3.5
At New England -9 NY Giants
New England doesn’t lose at home, but the Pats will face all kinds of pressure upfront from New York’s dominant pass rush. The Giants sure can pass the ball, too. While Nicks and Bradshaw will probably miss the game, the Giants still have plenty of weapons. The Pats love bouncing back after tough losses, but I think this spread’s just a tad too high. The Pats win, but the G-Men keep it close.
Pick: Giants +9
Green Bay -5.5 At San Diego
Rivers actually had a pretty good game before he fumbled the win away in KC. He started slow and ended poorly, but the middle was strong. Rivers should be able to find some creases against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 31st in the league and gives up 288.9 yards passing yards per game. That said, the Packers offense is just too damn good. They seem a little less potent on the road, but it’s hard to bet against this team. Expect a shoot out.
Pick: Packers -5.5
At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore
Game of the week right here. We got a primetime slugfest between the two biggest rivals in the NFL. The Steelers want vengeance after their Week 1 road thumping in Baltimore. The Ravens offense has looked out of sync the past couple weeks. The Steelers have looked great on both sides of the ball, but the team will be short on linebackers on Sunday. Woodley and Farrior are out and Harrison’s questionable. Big Ben had a nightmare game against the Ravens is Week 1, but he did beat this team in seven consecutive starts before that. Even with the missing pieces on D, the Steelers are going to win the rematch. And after playing each other three times in the last two seasons, you just know these two teams are going to meet again.
Pick: Steelers -3
At Philadelphia -7.5 Chicago
I’m pretty sure I haven’t called a Bears game right all season. When you think they can dominate, they find a way to lose. When you’re think they’re vulnerable, they deliver a victory. This game seems like a tough one to call. The Eagles looked great against Dallas – balanced, efficient and equal parts desperate and devastating. The Bears have won four straight. Coming off the bye, I don’t think the Bears are going to get manhandled like the Cowboys did. The Eagles will probably win this one, but I think the Bears and their underpaid workhorse will keep things close.
Pick: Bears +7.5
Week 8: 9-4
Season: 67-44-9 ATS
Nov 4th
