Week 3 NFL Picks

At Carolina -2.5 NY Giants
The Panthers got back to running the ball last week and they did it well with a two headed attack. Jonathan Stewart will be a game time decision. If he doesn’t play, I think that hurts the Panthers big time. DeAngelo Williams bounced back from a poor Week 1 showing, but there’s no replacing the one-two punch they got going. Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out for the Giants and Andre Brown is expected to see the bulk of the backfield carries for New York. Hakeem Nicks has been ruled out. Victor Cruz is going to need to have a big game with Domenik Hixon and Nicks both out. I see this being a high scoring affair, and if the Giants are close at the end, it’s hard to not like Eli and the G-Men. Manning can spread the love and make guys like Ramses Barden and Rueben Randle look like studs for a week.
Pick: Giants +2.5

At Chicago -7.5 St. Louis
Will Jay Cutler bounce back after a super ugly game? I think he’ll find a groove, but the Rams secondary isn’t going to get lit up, that’s for sure. I think Chicago will probably win, but I’ll take the points under the assumption that the Rams will keep this close.
Pick: Rams +7.5

At Dallas -8 Tampa Bay
The mental toughness of this Dallas team was questioned once again after they laid an egg in Seattle last week. It’s hard to know what to make of this team, but I see them rebounding at home against the Bucs.
Pick: Cowboys -8

San Francisco -6.5 At Minnesota
The 49ers are clicking on all cylinders. The run game is working. Crabtree and VD are looking dominant. The defense is rock solid and field goals that hit the crossbar bounce right in. If the Niners can shut down offenses like Green Bay and Detroit, they can handle the Vikings in the dome. I feel like San Francisco will dial up at least one redzone play to try and get Randy Moss a touchdown in his old stomping grounds. It’s the right play to keep the part-time player happy.
Pick: 49ers -6.5

Detroit -3.5 At Tennessee
The Titans haven’t scored a first half touchdown yet this season. Chris Johnson has 21 yards on 19 attempts. Yikes. The Lions just move the ball better. Sure they didn’t run all over the 49ers, but who does? I think the Lions shaky secondary is going to give up a couple of big, confidence-boosting plays to Jake Locker and the Titans wide receivers, but the Lions can keep pace, counter with more offensive production and get a win on the road.
Pick: Lions -3.5

At Washington -3 Cincinnati
I hope Garcon plays. He was limited in practice, but I just like watching that Griffin to Garcon connection. The Bengals offense woke up last week. That’ll happen when you play the Browns. Washington lost two key defensive players for the year, Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker. Those guys won’t be easy to replace. It’s only been two games, but the Skins have averaged 34 through two weeks, which tops the league. After blowing a great chance to force overtime last week, I like Washington to come out hungry and ready to roll.
Pick: Redskins -3

NY Jets -2.5 At Miami
Darelle Revis is back, which sucks for Miami. The Dolphins are coming off a huge offensive explosion against the Raiders. Reggie Bush was a monster and Ryan Tannehill looked much improved in his second NFL start. I picked Miami as dogs last week, and I’m tempted to do it again. But with Revis back in the fold and Miami’s secondary lacking any sort of talent, I think I have to go with the Jets here.
Pick: Jets -2.5

At New Orleans -9 Kansas City
I keep picking the Saints and they keep not winning. It’s frustrating. This team is better than that. Okay, maybe the defense isn’t, but I’m tired of seeing this offense camped out in three-and-out land. Get it together, guys. You’re up against the Chiefs. A team that’s been outscored 75-41 in the first two games of the year. If the Saints can’t cover here, they might as well pack it in.
Pick: Saints -9

Buffalo -3 At Cleveland
This game has missed tackles written all over it. These two teams could combine for over 500 rushing yards. Edge goes to the Bills.
Pick: Browns +3

At Indianapolis -3 Jacksonville
I like this Luck guy. If he gets Austin Collie back, he should be able to put together another strong performance at home.
Pick: Colts -3

Philadelphia -3.5 At Arizona
I want to see if this Cardinals defense can keep it going against a team that averaged a league-best 471 yards of offense in the first two games of the season. I think it’s worth noting that the Cardinals have only allowed two touchdowns in two games. If the Cards can stonewall the Eagles and build on last week’s upset, they’ll have to be taken seriously.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5

At San Diego -3 Atlanta
Can we get a Ryan Mathews sighting already? It’s Week 3 gaddamnit, it’s time for that guy to get on the field. Teams can run on the Falcons, and if Mathews sees the field, he should be a big upgrade over the RB committee that the Chargers have been working with. I think the Falcons have enough firepower to outscore the Chargers, though. Tony G’s been making plays. Roddy White’s still a beast. Even with a quiet day from Julio Jones, the Falcons can put up points. I like them on the road.
Pick: Falcons +3

Houston -2 At Denver
Manning is mortal after all. The Texans running game isn’t. Denver seems to hate covering tight ends as well. Good news for Owen Daniels owners.
Pick: Texans -2

Pittsburgh -4 At Oakland
No Polamalu or James Harrison for the Steelers. Both standout defenders were out against the Jets and the defense still looked great. The Steelers running game has completely disappeared. The Redman-Dwyer project has run its course. Mendenhall is practicing, but will he play before Week 5? With key starters missing, the Steelers still have a strong enough defense and passing game to win on the road in Oakland. The Raiders always seem to win games like this, but I’m sticking with Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers -4

At Baltimore -3 New England
The Pats bounce back in a tough road game.
Pick: Pats +3

Green Bay -3 At Seattle
Seattle crushed the Cowboys, but getting past the Packers won’t be as easy.
Pick: Packers -3

Last Week: 10-5-1
Season 16-15-1
Last Season: 140-120-12