Week 4 NFL Picks
At Dallas -2 Detroit
Like everyone else, I’m fully committed to the Detroit Lions. Megatron’s caught two TDs in each game this season. The Cowboys barely beat the Redskins. Romo’s missing Miles Austin and the Dallas ground game isn’t going anywhere. I’ll take Stafford and company to keep the hype machine rolling.
Pick: Lions +2
New Orleans -7 At Jacksonville
Brees is totally dialed in this year. He’s completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,059 yards, nine TDs and two picks. That comes out to an average of 8.1 yards per pass and a passer rating of 109.7. The Jags strength is their defense, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop the second most potent offense in the NFL.
Pick: Saints -7
At Philadelphia -9 San Francisco
The Eagles are 1-2 and staring up at three 2-1 teams in their division. Vick is going to play, but it’s McCoy and the ground game that have been the strength of this offense so far this season. The Niners are allowing only 62.7 rushing yards per game (third best in the league). The Eagles are desperate for a W, but San Francisco is 2-0-1 ATS this year. I think the Eagles will win, but I’ll take the 49ers and the points.
Pick: Niners +9
Washington -2 At St. Louis
The Rams are still searching for their first win, while the Redskins are coming off of their first loss of the young season. If the Rams want to win, they better do it now. The next three games include trips to Green Bay and Dallas and a home game against the Saints. I say the Rams put it together at home with Steven Jackson back on the field.
Pick: Rams +2
At Cleveland -1 Tennessee
Ever since the Browns let me down in Week 1 of my survivor league, I’ve been finding ways to hate this team. Tennessee may have lost their best wide receiver, but they still have a hungry running back who’s ready to earn his paycheck. Plus, I’m really surprised by the way that Hasselbeck is playing. He’s completing 69.6 percent of his passes and averaging over 300 yards per game. Add in a much better defense and the edge goes to the Titans.
Pick: Titans +1
Buffalo-3 At Cincinnati
I like Cincy’s D, but I love everything about the Buffalo offense. Fitzpatrick, Stevie, Chandler, Nelson, Fred Jackson leading the league in rushing. The Bills are my new favorite team. I’ve saw them give up big leads to Oakland and the Pats, but this offense has proved that it can move the ball when it wants to.
Pick: Bills -3
Minnesota -2 At Kansas City
The Chiefs made it interesting there for a bit last week against the Chargers. The Vikings have turned three first half leads into an 0-3 start. I think Minnesota will find a way to play 60 minutes and win this weekend.
Pick: Vikings -2
At Chicago -6.5 Carolina
One week, the Bears are amazing (Week 1), the next week (Week2-3), they just can’t get it done. The Panthers can’t run the ball or play defense, but Cam Newton’s keeping things interesting. Chicago doesn’t seem to keen on running the ball at all. It might be a good week to rethink that strategy. The Panthers are giving up 117 yards per game on the ground. It’s not easy taking the Bears here, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Pick: Bears -6.5
At Houston -3.5 Pittsburgh
Damn the Steelers looked terrible on Sunday night when they barely escaped with a win over the Colts. And the Texans almost pulled off the upset against the Saints. I really hate picking against the Steelers, but it’s kind of hard not to in this situation. Arian Foster is back. Pittsburgh’s ground game is sluggish at best and their o-line is a mess. I’m still not buying into this the Steelers defense is too old business, but I think the Texans get the edge here, especially at home.
Pick: Texans -3.5
Atlanta -4.5 At Seattle
Seattle plays well at home. Atlanta plays poorly on the road. But who are we kidding? The Falcons are just a better team. If they can get Turner involved early and often, Matt Ryan will have an easier time delivering a road win.
Pick: Falcons -4.5
NY Giants -1 At Arizona
The Cardinals have problems. Their defense is atrocious and they only managed one offensive touchdown against the Seahawks last week. Meanwhile, the Giants, despite having tons of injuries, have rebounded to a nice 2-1 start after losing the opener in Washington. Eli’s gotten better each game. G-Men win in the desert.
Pick: Giants -1
At San Diego -7 Miami
Desperation time just got even more desperate for the Dolphins. Daniel Thomas is doubtful for Sunday’s game in San Diego. The Chargers don’t look like an elite team so far this year, but you don’t have to be elite to beat the Dolphins.
Pick: Chargers -7
At Green Bay -12 Denver
I don’t care how high the spread is here, the Packers are going to crush the Broncos.
Pick: Packers -12
New England -5 At Oakland
This is the trickiest game to call this week. New England has the best air attack in the NFL by far (540.33 passing yards per game). Oakland has the best ground game (185 rushing yards per game). New England can’t stop anything on defense. They’re the worst team in the league at surrendering passing yards. Oakland’s D isn’t that great against the run, and they’re not all that great against the pass either. It really comes down to offensive strength vs. offensive strength. The Raiders will play keep away while the Pats will get points off of almost every drive. In the end, Brady’s arm outperforms McFadden’s feet.
Pick: Pats -5
At Baltimore -3.5 NY Jets
Ray Rice is the real deal. You saw what he did against the Steelers. This guy is matchup-proof. Sanchez and the Jets are averaging 27.7 points per game, and all that offense is coming through the air. Shonn Greene’s not getting it done and LT can’t be expected to carry the load. The Ravens will make sure that the Jets ground game doesn’t get going. If they can force Sanchez into making a couple bad plays, they should be able to take care of business at home.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
At Tampa Bay -10 Indianapolis
I’m never betting against the Bucs again, even when they’re favored. The Colts played with pride last week, but Curtis Painter’s not gonna get it done.
Pick: Bucs -10
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 26-20-2 ATS
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