At Green Bay -14.5 St. Louis
Blowout city. The Rams are hurting. The spread is huge and so is the skill differential. Green Bay wins easy.
Pick: Packers -14.5

At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville
The Steelers are hurt, but they get Mendenhall back and they’re playing at home. The Jags perform well against Pittsburgh historically, but with a so-so defense and a rookie QB, the advantage goes to Pittsburgh. The Steelers continue their rebounding ways and win convincingly.
Pick: Steelers -12

Philadelphia -1.5 At Washington
It’s been must-win time for awhile for Philly. And despite all the consistency, I’m still not buying the Redskins as the team to beat in the NFC East. Eagles get a much needed win.
Pick: Eagles -1.5

At Detroit -4 San Francisco
The Lions are really good. So are the Niners. Harbaugh has this team believing, but this is a tough contest on the road. The 49ers have covered every spread they’ve faced so far, but this is the first week that I’m picking against them. It’s not going to be a blowout, but the Lions just have too much going for them right now. They’ll take care of business at home.
Pick: Lions -4

At Atlanta -4 Carolina
Atlanta hasn’t lived up to the hype. They were supposed to be the next Greatest Show on Turf. Instead, their season is on the brink of being a let down. The Panthers have been in every game they’ve played so far, but they haven’t found a way to win. Carolina’s going to get better and win games soon, but not this week.
Pick: Falcons -4

At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis
Curtis Painter isn’t bad. In fact, the dude’s pretty good. He loves Garcon. So much so that the Colts are considering shipping free agent-to-be Reggie Wayne out of town. It’s funny, cause Wayne was the one who said that Painter should have been the starter all along. That said, the Bengals are legit. Their defense is for real and the whole Dalton to Green connection is something you have to believe in. I like the Bengals at home.
Pick: Bengals -7

At NY Giants -3 Buffalo
The Bills got off to a hot start, but they’ve faced some adversity the past couple weeks. The Giants are an up and down team searching for answers. Bradshaw’s calling out the o-line. Eli Manning is always on the cusp of greatness, but he still makes turnovers that’ll make you question his ability, week in and week out. I think the Buffalo D does enough to take advantage of New York’s miscues. The Bills pound the rock with Freddy and win on the road.
Pick: Bills +3

At Baltimore -8 Houston
I get that the Ravens are playing really good football and yea, they’re playing at home and all, but the spread seems a bit high for this contest. I get that Andre Johnson is out and Baltimore’s D is amazing, but this spread just seems a tad too high. A field goal, sure. Six points or seven points, maybe. Two scores? Nah, not buying it. Texans can cover.
Pick: Texans +8

At Oakland -6.5 Cleveland
The Raiders played inspired football last week. That was on the road. Now they’re at home. The Browns have the unfortunate pleasure of playing a fired-up Oakland squad that just lost their patriarch. The Raiders would be a good bet against a top-tier team this week. Luckily, they get Cleveland. There’s no way the Browns escape Oakland with a win.
Pick: Raiders -6.5

At New England -6.5 Dallas
Who needs a defense? Especially with a ridiculous home winning record. The Cowboys are a yo-yo team that’s shown flashes of greatness and stretches of mediocrity. Miles Austin is back, and that’s bad news for New England. But picking against Tom Brady at home with a touchdown spread? Can’t dot it. Won’t do it.
Pick: Pats -6.5

New Orleans -4.5 At Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is always a tricky team to bet against. Just when you think they suck balls, they pull off an amazing win. But they got manhandled last week, and they lost Blount in the process. The Saints are just too good.
Pick: Saints -4.5

At Chicago -3 Minnesota
The Bears offense went off last week, but their o-line is a mess. Martz is finding creative ways to get Forte the ball. The Vikings defensive front is going to cause problems for Chicago, but I think the Bears can eek out a win here.
Pick: Bears -3

At NY Jets -7 Miami
The Jets need to get their act together if they want to be in the playoff conversation. Miami is beyond desperation mode, but they have Matt Moore under center. I don’t like the fact that Santonio keeps calling out his teammates on a weekly basis, but I think the Jets can handle the Fins at home.
Pick: Jets -7

Last week: 7-5-1
Season:  43 -31-7 ATS

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