At Tennessee -8.5 Indianapolis
The Colts aren’t going to win. They’re a bad team. Their defense was allowing more than 27 points per game before the 62-7 shellacking that took place on Sunday night. Curtis Painter isn’t the problem. He had a bad game last week, but he’s actually been pretty serviceable this season. Both teams are coming off embarrassing blowouts, but the Titans are better equipped for a rebound. And they’re playing at home.
Pick: Titans -8.5

At Houston -9.5 Jacksonville
With the AFC Central up for grabs this year, both of these teams have a chance to be dangerous. The Texans snapped a two game losing streak last week when they routed the Titans. The Jags snapped a 5 game losing streak when they upset Baltimore on Monday. I think the Jags have to be fired up and motivated to play, but the Texans present to big of a challenge. The spread may be a bit too high here, but you have to think Houston can handle this team, especially if Andre Johnson is back in the fold this week.
Pick: Texans -9.5

At Carolina -3.5 Minnesota
I like Christian Ponder. I think he brings a much-needed spark. Carolina’s dangerous though. Not on defense, of course, but Cam can move the ball. His favorite weapon, Steve Smith, is averaging a ridiculous 21 yards per reception. Adrian Peterson is going to have a huge game against a run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. It’s hard to think that Carolina won’t keep it close, but I think Ponder will shine in a game plan that calls for heavy doses of AP.
Pick: Vikings +3.5

New Orleans -13.5 At St. Louis
Let’s see, we have a team that scored 62 points last week and going up against a winless squad led by journeyman backup AJ Feely. The two touchdown spread almost seems too low.
Pick: Saints -13.5

At Baltimore -13 Arizona
The Ravens looked bizarre last week. Ray Rice couldn’t get going and didn’t do much with the measly eight carries he received. Baltimore’s offensive woes weren’t just limited to last week, though. Joe Flacco has one TD and three INTs in the last three games. Luckily he gets to go up against an Arizona secondary that ranks 28th in the league against the pass. The Cards lost Beanie Wells last week and Kevin Kolb is having a pretty mediocre season. After the ugly loss on Monday, John Harbaugh’s going to have his team ready to rock against an inferior opponent.
Pick: Ravens -13

At NY Giants -10 Miami
Nothing is going to stop the Dolphins downward spiral, especially not a trip to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that’s leading the way in the NFC East. NFL teams have been sucking it up after bye weeks, but the G-men are getting guys like Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs back. Miami loses again.
Pick: Giants -10

At Buffalo (in Toronto) -6 Washington
The Skins lost Tim Hightower for the year and Santa Moss is going to miss extended time. The John Beck era didn’t really start off with a bang either. The Bills have cooled considerably since their hot start, but their ball hawking D, strong run game and steady QB play should earn them a victory.
Pick: Bills -6

Detroit -3 At Denver
Stafford’s banged up and Best is likely to miss the game for Detroit. Tim Tebow looked absolutely horrendous for three and a half quarters last week, then he pulled off a miracle comeback that included defensive blunders, diving catches and a whole lot of luck. No one can question that Tebow has something special about him. He just can’t throw the ball. And that seems like an important skill for an NFL QB. I’ll take a banged up Lions team on the road against an offense with two suspect running backs (Tebow and Knowshon) at the helm. Even if Shaun Hill starts, Detroit’s the better play.
Pick: Lions -3

New England -3 At Pittsburgh
There’s no questioning the fact that Tom Brady owns the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Playoffs, regular season – you name it – Brady just loves spreading the Steelers out and striking at will. But you know what? The Steelers have some good thing going on offense as well. Big Ben’s going to have a big day against New England’s suspect secondary. This high scoring game’s going to come down to one or two red zone stops. Despite Brady’s history against Pittsburgh, I’m taking the Steelers at home.
Pick: Steelers +3

At San Francisco -8.5 Cleveland
Cleveland’s defense isn’t that bad, but their offense is atrocious. The only time this team has topped 17 points this year was in Week 2 when they put up 27 on the winless Colts. I’m pretty much never picking against the 49ers until I see some super compelling reason to not expect this team to crush it.
Pick: Niners -8.5

Cincinnati -3 At Seattle
Sure, Seattle’s a tough place play, but Cincy’s young guns and strong D can handle the Charlie Whitehurst-led Seahawks. Even if T-Jack’s behind center, I like the Bengals on the road.
Pick: Bengals -3

At Philadelphia -3.5 Dallas
The Eagles haven’t lost after a bye week under Andy Reid, but they haven’t spent much time at the bottom of the NFC East either. The Eagles are 2-4 this season, and they’re also 2-4 against the spread. The Dream Team gets too much respect for a squad that has one win in the last five games. Dallas has blown games they should have won and they haven’t lost by more than four points all year. I like the Dallas D to force some mistakes against a team that leads the league in turnovers.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5

San Diego -3.5 At Kansas City
Philip Rivers isn’t having a good year. He says that health isn’t the issue, but something’s going on. He’s forcing the ball (three TDs to five INTs last four games), and the Chiefs held Rivers to zero TDs and forced two picks in Week 3. KC has won three straight and the players seem to be buying into what Todd Haley’s selling. Arrowhead is always a tough place to play. Add in San Diego’s recent mistakes and KC’s momentum, and you have a recipe for a home team victory.
Pick: Chiefs +3.5

Week 7: 8-4-1
Season: 58-40-9 ATS

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