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Thursday’s pick was the right call thanks to some Vegas-busting decision making by John Harbaugh. 1-0 so far in Week 7 with twelve more games to go…

At Buffalo -3.5 Tennessee
Chris Johnson’s working on a mini-resurgence here. He put up 141 rushing yards against Houston and 91 yards on Pittsburgh. Now he gets to face a defense that gives up a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry. The Bills didn’t look all that shoddy on defense last week though, when they ended Arizona’s eight game home winning streak. For all the drama on defense this season, the Bills are still in the hunt in the all-tied-up AFC East. They can build on last week’s win. The Titans haven’t won on the road yet.
Pick: Bills -3.5

At Minnesota -6.5 Arizona
Two 4-2 teams both coming off losses. The Vikings haven’t lost at home yet, and I’m tempted to think that streak will continue.
Pick: Vikings -6.5

At Indianapolis -2.5 Cleveland
Richardson is optimistic he’ll be back this week which is good news for the Browns, as the Colts are allowing 159 yards a game and 5 yards per carry. Andrew Luck plays well at home, but there’s just something about this Brown’s team that gives them the edge. Maybe it’s their trio of rookie playmakers (Weeden, Richardson and Gordon). Maybe it’s the fact that Joe Haden’s back. I dunno what it is, but I like this team. Playing in Indy will be a true test, because that home crowd is all high on Chuck Strong vibes. If the Browns can get the win this weekend, they’re no longer going to be an easy out for anyone.
Pick: Browns +2.5

At Houston -6.5 Baltimore
The Ravens just own people at home, but the team is much less dominant on the road. The Texans have to be bitter about their big loss to the Packers. I think they’ll run the ball right down Baltimore’s throat. Suggs may be back soon, but this defense isn’t as fearful as it used to be.
Pick: Texans -6.5

Green Bay -5.5 At St. Louis
The Rams haven’t lost yet at home, but that ends this week. The Packers needed a big win to get things rolling again. They’ll keep throttle going and pick up where they left off last week. Lock of the week material, this.
Pick: Packers -5.5

Dallas -2 At Carolina
In the battle of the leagues two most inconsistent teams, it’s hard to be confident about either side. When the Panthers are running the ball well, they can do some damage. When the Cowboys are moving the chains through the air, they look like they can hang with anyone. Too often it’s stalled drives, self-inflicted wounds and untimely turnovers that derail both of these teams. I’m thinking Dallas can put together a solid game to remind people that they still have the talent to find a sweet spot from time to time.
Pick: Cowboys -2

At NY Giants -6 Washington
The Skins beat the Giants twice last year, and that was without RG3. New York’s only two losses have come within the division. If the G-Men want to maintain their lead status in the NFC East, they need to take care of business at home. Look for Coughlin’s squad to come out prepared for the importance of this game.
Pick: Giants -6

New Orleans -2.5 At Tampa Bay
The Saints really have some issues on defense, and activating Vilma’s not going to change all that. The Bucs are going to run all over the Saints, but I just can’t close the books on Brees and company bouncing back after a dreadful start to the season.
Pick: Saints -2.5

At New England -10.5 NY Jets
The Pats will remind everyone that the AFC East isn’t as wide open as it seems.
Pick: Pats -10.5

At Oakland -4 Jacksonville
This is going to be the type of game that makes you wonder whether the Raiders can be a really great team. They’re not obviously, but they’ll sure look like a great team this Sunday. Bank on big plays in the passing game from Palmer and big takeaways from Oakland’s D.
Pick: Raiders -4

Pittsburgh -1 At Cincinnati
Man, the Steelers looked like shit last Thursday. RBs and O-lineman we’re dropping like flies. Ike Taylor was getting worked over and the Man of Troy was sorely missed. The Steelers have had time to rest up, but Big Ben tweaked an ankle during practice on Thursday. I’m sure it won’t be a big factor, but still, this team is missing key players, sitting at 2-3 and Polomalu-less heading into this weekend. Cincy’s going to make some big plays against this suspect secondary. With makeshift lineman in there, it’s going to be hard for spot starter RB Jonathan Dwyer to make some plays, but I think Ben’s gonna fling it around to his playmakers and get enough points on the board to get the Steelers back to .500.
Pick: Steelers -1

At Chicago -6 Detroit
The Lions have a banged up secondary and Jay Cutler is coming off back-to-back good games. Factor in some extra rest for Matt Forte (who typically performs well against Detroit) and the Bears should be able to take this one at home.
Pick: Bears -6

Last Week: 4-10
Season 42-48-1
Last Season: 140-120-12

Pittsburgh -6.5 At Tennessee
The Steelers don’t play well without Troy Polamalu, but the Titans don’t play well period. Sure Woodley is out too, and the Steelers haven’t exactly been lights out against the run, but don’t be fooled. The Titans are a bad team and the Steelers have the weapons to get the W on the road.
Pick: Steelers -6.5

Cincinnati -1.5 At Cleveland
I think the Browns will show up ready to take the second round of the Battle of Ohio. They lost first matchup by a touchdown in Week 2. Now they get to play at home. The Browns aren’t as crappy as their 0-5 record, and the Bengals are a vulnerable 3-2.
Pick: Browns +1.5

At NY Jets -3.5 Indianapolis
This game feels like a textbook letdown game for the emotionally charged Colts, but I think they can sustain their emotion and build on it.
Pick: Colts +3.5

At Tampa Bay -4.5 Kansas City
Brady Quinn finally gets his shot. I think he’ll blow it.
Pick: Bucs -4.5

At Atlanta -9 Oakland
The Raiders will try to pound the rock and keep Atlanta’s offensive stars on the sidelines. It won’t work.
Pick: Falcons -9

At Baltimore -3.5 Dallas
The Ravens always have these weird road games where they take weaker opponents too lightly. That’s what happened in KC. Back at home, the Ravens will be a different team.
Pick: Ravens -3.5

At Philadelphia -4 Detroit
Both these teams feel like they’ve underachieved, but the Eagles are 3-2 and the Lions are stuck at 1-3. The Eagles are averaging only 16 points per game. That’s for 31st in the league. Yikes. But the Lions can’t stop anything. Remember, Detroit gave up 44 points to the Titans, a team that hasn’t put up more than 14 points in any other contest. As much as ball security is an issue for the Eagles, they should be able to get going at home against the Lions.
Pick: Detroit +4

At Miami -4 St. Louis
Reggie Bush has got some knee issues, but dude loves putting up big yardage at home. This gritty Dolphins team has got something good going and they’ll be honoring former greats Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. S-Jax won’t run big and the Amendola-less passing game will falter.
Pick: Dolphins -4

New England -3.5 At Seattle
How legit is Seattle? Well I picked them to win last week, but against the Pats, I’m not so sure. Yea that defense is great, but the Pats are back in a big way. Wes is in play. Hernandez could return. They’re not going to drop 52 points, but the Pats will earn the W.
Pick: Pats -3.5

At Arizona -4.5 Buffalo
The Bills have allowed a ridiculous 97 points over the last two games. Buffalo’s not exactly facing an offensive juggernaut in Arizona, but this Bills team has just been demoralized and demolished the past two weeks.
Pick: Cardinals -4.5

At Washington -2 Minnesota
I just like the Vikings. I like AP to run angry and show the Skins that they can tear his knee, but they’ll never break his all-dayness.
Pick: Vikings +2

At San Francisco -6.5 NY Giants
Both of these teams want to pretend that they’re disrespected underdogs, but it’s just not true. They’re both solid, but the Niners have been too dominant lately to not be favored by a TD at home.
Pick: Niners -6.5

At Houston -3.5 Green Bay
What’s up the Packers? They start slow on offense and blow leads on defense. There just seems to be a strange malaise about this team. Now they have to go on the road and play the undefeated Texans. In Houston. In primetime. The loss of Brian Cushing is pretty sever for this hot Texans team, but I think they can edge out the Packers in a high scoring affair.
Pick: Texans -3.5

At San Diego -1.5 Denver
Don’t hand the division crown to the Chargers just yet. Broncos will roll into San Diego and make some serious noise. Gates and Mathews go off, but Peyton turns in a gem.
Pick: Broncos +1.5

Last Week: 7-7
Season 38-38-1
Last Season: 140-120-12

At Baltimore -12 Cleveland
That’s a whole lot of points there, but even with the recent busy playing schedule of the Ravens, it’s hard to not like them to win big here.
Pick: Ravens -12

New England -4 At Buffalo
I hope Fred Jackson gets back this week, but it’s not looking great. Look for the Pats to right the ship either way.
Pick: Patriots -4

At Detroit -5 Minnesota
We all know the Lions can move the ball. They’re first in the league in passing yards and second in the league in total yards. Now they even have a running back who can give them a workhorse-type effort. The defense is a different story, though. I think the Vikings will keep this close and take advantage of a quality running game (AP), a receiver who catches almost everything (Percy) and a guy who’s going to provide a shot in the arm against a weak secondary (Jerome Simpson).
Pick: Vikings +5

At Atlanta -7 Carolina
The Falcons are for real. Home, away, it doesn’t matter. Cam’s gonna be sour-faced after this one, for sure.
Pick: Falcons -7

San Francisco -4 At NY Jets
No Revis – no problem. They got running back Joe McKnight out there! What could go wrong? I hope the legit refs start flagging Santonio for his constant begging for penalty calls. It’s gotten so bad. Niners bounce back.
Pick: 49ers -4

At Kansas City -1 San Diego
Both these teams have had up and down weeks. The Chiefs were goats for two games and heroes in Week 3, when they overcame an 18-point deficit to beat the Saints in New Orleans. The Chargers looked great in Week 2 and extra-flat against the Falcons. This is really a toss up. The Chargers have won seven of their last nine games against the Chiefs, and the Chiefs have won the last two contests. Toss-up city.
Pick: Chargers +1

At Houston -12 Tennessee
Big spread for a reason. Still like the Texans to cover.
Pick: Texans -12

Seattle -2.5 At St. Louis
The euphoria of the fake win has faded. Time for a letdown game in St. Louis.
Pick: Rams +2.5

At Arizona -6.5 Miami
Go cards go! This defense is allowing the second fewest points per game (13.3). Time to believe!
Pick: Cardinals -6.5

At Denver -6.5 Oakland
So Oakland got a win against a good Pittsburgh team, and Denver got outplayed by a better Texans team. I think Peyton can take advantage of this defense and right the ship at home.
Pick: Broncos -6.5

Cincinnati -2.5 At Jacksonville
The Bengals got a big win last week against the Skins. I like them on the road.
Pick: Bengals -2.5

At Green Bay -7.5 New Orleans
It’s hard to see the Saints going 0-4, but it’s even more difficult to not see Green Bay going off after getting jobbed in Seattle. This game should have plenty of points.
Pick: Packers -7.5

At Tampa Bay -3 Washington
Tampa plays tough at home, but I don’t think the
Pick: Redskins +3

At Philadelphia -1.5 NY Giants
I just don’t like this Eagles team. The Giants just have more pop.
Pick: Giants +1.5

At Dallas -3.5 Chicago
Cutler gets flustered and the Cowboys win a tough, physical game at home.
Pick: Cowboys -3.5

Last Week: 6-10
Season 22-25-1
Last Season: 140-120-12

So a wild opening week of NFL football made last week’s picks look pretty damn weak. I’m already in a hole with a 6-10 record ATS. Here’s hoping Week 2 will be less of a disaster. On to the picks:

At Green Bay -4.5 Chicago
Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to panic. The Bear’s looked solid, but that was against the Colts. The Bears D isn’t shabby, but it’s not nearly on par with a 49ers unit that looked downright dominant. Cedric Benson plays well against the team that originally drafted him. Look for more balance from Green Bay, as the Packers equalize their record at home. Also, with Greg Jennings inactive, look for Randall Cobb to build on his exciting multi-purpose start to the season.
Pick: Packers -4.5

At NY Giants -7 Tampa Bay
Victor Cruz made some awful drops in Week 1, but I think he got it out of his system. The Giants could use some help in the secondary, and they need to see what David Wilson can do with the ball. Hopefully the kid doesn’t fumble in the first series so we can see what he looks like throughout the rest of the game. Bradshaw did well, but the G-Men need more of a rushing presence up the middle and in short yardage situations. I like the way Doug Martin runs. With Blount out with a stinger, Martin should get plenty of looks. It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants can bring more pressure on D. They didn’t look too threatening in the opener, but I like their chances to bounce back.
Pick: Giants -7

At New England -13.5 Arizona
The Pats don’t lose in Week 1. They just don’t. Brady and company looked sharp against an overmatched Titans team. I found myself cheering for Kevin Kolb once he got in the game against Seattle. It can’t be fun to be viewed as a big trade/fat franchise contract blunder. Guy stepped in and looked pretty sharp. Too bad he has to follow that effort up against such a superior opponent.
Pick: Pats -13.5

Minnesota -1.5 At Indianapolis
Christian Ponder looks much improved, and AP is back to All Day status. Luck had a bunch of turnovers in his first pro game, but I don’t expect that to continue. This is a tough, pick ‘em-type situation, but I’m going with Luck to win his first pro game in Indy’s home opener.
Pick: Colts +1.5

New Orleans -2.5 At Carolina
So the Saints got slapped around in their home opener. They sucked at third downs, had too many bone-headed offensive penalties and just looked vulnerable all over the place on defense. The Panthers couldn’t run the ball at all in their opening loss to the Bucs. DeAngelo Williams, who was supposed to have a huge game with Jonathan Stewart sidelined, ended up with a meager -1 yard on the ground. JStew is practicing again and should give the Panthers a nice lift. Still, I expect this game to end with Cam Newton walking off the field wearing a towel over his head in disappointment. Saints rebound on the road.
Pick: Saints -2.5

At Buffalo -3 Kansas City
The Bills got lit up by a division rival last week. Not the way you want to start the year. Losing Fred Jackson for a month and David Nelson for the year doesn’t help either. Things just looked bad. CJ Spiller is sure to have a big game, but I like the Chiefs to win in a grinder.
Pick: Chiefs +3

At Philadelphia -2.5 Baltimore
Philly’s top wideouts are both a little gimpy right now. Maclin’s got a hip flexor (or pointer or some shit) and DeSean finished practice today with ice around his leg. Factor in Vick’s desire to hurt himself and the fact that the Ravens look downright barbaric right now on defense, and it looks like things could get ugly in Philly. Joe Flacco looked fantastic against a Bengals team that was still in preseason mode. With some pretty passes and lots of Ray Rice, the Ravens should put up enough points to earn the upset.
Pick: Ravens +2.5

Oakland -2.5 At Miami
I feel like the Raiders have no chance at competing in their division this year. You can only run DMC into the ground for so long. And at some point you need healthy wide receivers to make plays. Being able to get the ball to your punter helps, too. What the Raiders need is a trip to Miami to beat up on the Dolphins. But will the Dolphins go down that easy? They got a win at least a couple games this year, right? Maybe this will be one of ‘em.
Pick: Dolphins +2.5

At Cincinnati -6.5 Cleveland
Man, the Bengals looked terrible on Monday, but at least they moved the ball. Somewhat. The Browns defense kept Cleveland in the game against the Eagles, but you can’t give your workhorse running back 19 carries and not have him break 50 yards. And you can’t have your new franchise QB throw 4 picks, put up single digit passer rating and expect to win. With Joe Haden starting his suspension, Andy to AJ should be a good connection this week. As bad as the Bengals looked, they’re probably not the worst team in Ohio.
Pick: Bengals 6-5

Houston -7 At Jacksonville
So much for taking it easy with Arian Foster. Houston worked their workhorse back hard in Week 1, and the results were nice. Houston’s got a lot of things going right at the moment. That’s what happens when you play the Dolphins. Balls get batted at the line, endzones look bigger and easier to get through, turnovers happen. The Jags have to be happy with the progression of Blaine Gabbert. MJD looks ready to carry the load again too. I think the Texans will still be too much for Jacksonville to handle though.
Pick: Texans -7

Dallas -3 At Seattle
The Rob Ryan defense in Dallas has finally come into its own. That’s not good for rookie QB Russell Wilson. Seattle definitely not a doormat, but with the Cowboy’s find rhythm on both sides of the ball, it’s going to be tough for the Seahawks to come out on top.
Pick: Cowboys -3

Washington -3 At St. Louis
The Rams defense looked great against Detroit, but I’m so high on RG3, I might just eat a whole bag of potato chips. If Garcon plays and Fisher goes with another conservative game plan, the Skins will be 2-0.
Pick: Skins -3

At Pittsburgh -5.5 NY Jets
Manning was toying with the Steelers all game last Sunday night. The Jets exploded on the Bills. Pittsburgh returns home a little bit healthier. While the Jets have had some success against the Steelers recently, I expect this game to bring the New York back to reality, especially if Darrelle Revis sits out.
Pick: Steelers -5.5

At San Diego -6 Tennessee
The Titans running game is a huge question mark.  Then again, the Chargers don’t have the clearest backfield right now either. If Mathews plays, it’ll be a big boost. It’s more likely that we’re going to see a combo of a washed up Ronnie Brown, a harder running Curtis Brinkley and short yardage guy Le’Ron McClain. The Chargers offense could use a shot in the arm. They can’t rely on FGs forever. The Titans get Kenny Britt back, which is nice, but I don’t think it will be enough. This game could be the most unwatchable game of the week.
Pick: Chargers -6

At San Francisco -6.5 Detroit
The 49ers look scary. They’re in a soft division, they have a punishing defense and new weapons and depth on offense. Alex Smith played decisively against the Packers. He didn’t just manage the game and minimize mistakes, dude made plays. It’s telling that the Lions can still win games when Matthew Stafford throws three ugly picks. Their offense has the ability to rebound, but their secondary could sure use some help. It’s hard to hate on the Lions, but San Francisco just looks like too much to handle.
Pick: 49ers -6.5

At Atlanta -3 Denver
Atlanta looked extra-explosive to start the year, but the new Manning-led Broncos can sure control a game. Look for Manning to eat clock and keep the high-octane Falcons offense off the field.
Pick: Broncos +3

Last Week: 6-10
Last Season 140-120-12