Posts tagged Week 6 NFL Picks

At Chicago -7.5 NY Giants
The Giants have been outscored by 100 points this season. Only the Jags have a larger point differential (-112). That’s bad. Real bad. The Bears have dropped their last two after starting 3-0, but the Bears are third in the league in takeaways (14). The Giants are the league leaders in giveaways (20). The winless streak will continue for the G-Men.
Pick: Da Bears -7.5

At Kansas City -9 Oakland
The spread seems kinda high. I mean the Chiefs are undefeated, playing good football, not turning the ball over and playing at home. But the Raiders under Pryor aren’t exactly pushovers either. Especially if McFadden can get back on the field. I say the Chiefs win but the gap is closer than 9.
Pick: Raiders+9

Philadelphia -1.5 At Tampa Bay
The Bucs seem like a team destined for a new coach and a high draft pick. The Eagles moved the ball well when Nick Foles took over for an injured Michael Vick, so if Vick can’t go, the offense shouldn’t suffer that much.
Pick: Eagles -1.5

Green Bay -3 At Baltimore
Tough call here. I like the Packers, but the Ravens are 2-0 at home and the Packers are 0-2 on the road. Edge goes to the team with the better passing attack.
Pick: Packers -3

Detroit -2.5 At Cleveland
It’s hard to not like the Browns. They’ve been so bad for so long. The Lions without Calvin Johnson appear a bit toothless. Defenses can just key in on Reggie. I’m going Browns as home dogs here, even with Weeden behind center.
Pick: Browns +2.5

At Minnesota -2.5 Carolina
Josh Freeman won’t get the call just yet, so the Freeman era will have to wait in Minny. The Panthers can’t seem to get things clicking on both sides of the ball. The D shows up and the offense stalls. Maybe Cam can put a complete game together in Week 6.
Pick: Panthers +2.5

At Houston -7.5 St. Louis
The Rams beat up on the Jags last week, but that’s not saying much. Schaub is under fire big time in Houston, and he’ll be without safety valve Owen Daniels and potentially without Andre Johnson as well this Sunday. I think Schaub will show up and keep Kubs off the hot seat, at least temporarily.
Pick: Texans -7.5

At NY Jets -2.5 Pittsburgh
It’s now or never for Pittsburgh. Coming off the bye week, the rest of the AFC North sits at 3-2. If the Steelers can’t force any turnovers, they will lose. They’re the second team in NFL history to have zero forced turnovers in the first four games. Ouch. The Jets are all swagger and sunshine after upsetting Atlanta. I say the Steelers D shows up, the ground game finds some space and the Steelers get win #1.
Pick: Steelers +2.5

Cincinnati -7.5 At Buffalo
Thad Lewis vs. a team that shut down Tom Brady? Let’s go with the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals -7.5

At Seattle -13.5 Tennessee
I’m not buying this Ryan Fitzpatrick does a great Jake Locker impression situation. Seahawks at home against a team that’s not as good as it’s 3-2 record suggests.
Pick: Seahawks -13.5

At Denver -27.5 Jacksonville
Do you really want to bet on this game? The highest spread in NFL history is bound to get plenty of action. The Jags have yet to cover a spread, but professional players on a shitty team can still find the motivation to not lose by four touchdowns.
Pick: Jags +27.5

At San Francisco -11 Arizona
The Niners win a game dominated by lots of Frank Gore touches.
Pick: Niners -11

At New England -2.5 New Orleans
Gronk is back as the Saints come marching into New England with a spotless record. Gronk can’t fix everything, though. The D-line is busted. The points aren’t flowing like they used to. People need to stop fumbling. On the flipside the Saints look strong in all phases. I think they escape New England with their undefeated streak intact.
Pick: Saints +2.5

At Dallas -5.5 Washington
Poor Romo. Even when you throw for 500+ yards, people still get bitter about the last mistake you made. After coming up short against the Broncos, the Cowboys should be able to do some damage against the league’s worst defense.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5

Indianapolis -1.5 At San Diego
I picked the Colts last week as home dogs, and I like ‘em on the road here as well.
Pick: Colts -1.5

Last Week: 8-6
Season: 36-39-2
Last Season: 136-121-5

At Green Bay -14.5 St. Louis
Blowout city. The Rams are hurting. The spread is huge and so is the skill differential. Green Bay wins easy.
Pick: Packers -14.5

At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville
The Steelers are hurt, but they get Mendenhall back and they’re playing at home. The Jags perform well against Pittsburgh historically, but with a so-so defense and a rookie QB, the advantage goes to Pittsburgh. The Steelers continue their rebounding ways and win convincingly.
Pick: Steelers -12

Philadelphia -1.5 At Washington
It’s been must-win time for awhile for Philly. And despite all the consistency, I’m still not buying the Redskins as the team to beat in the NFC East. Eagles get a much needed win.
Pick: Eagles -1.5

At Detroit -4 San Francisco
The Lions are really good. So are the Niners. Harbaugh has this team believing, but this is a tough contest on the road. The 49ers have covered every spread they’ve faced so far, but this is the first week that I’m picking against them. It’s not going to be a blowout, but the Lions just have too much going for them right now. They’ll take care of business at home.
Pick: Lions -4

At Atlanta -4 Carolina
Atlanta hasn’t lived up to the hype. They were supposed to be the next Greatest Show on Turf. Instead, their season is on the brink of being a let down. The Panthers have been in every game they’ve played so far, but they haven’t found a way to win. Carolina’s going to get better and win games soon, but not this week.
Pick: Falcons -4

At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis
Curtis Painter isn’t bad. In fact, the dude’s pretty good. He loves Garcon. So much so that the Colts are considering shipping free agent-to-be Reggie Wayne out of town. It’s funny, cause Wayne was the one who said that Painter should have been the starter all along. That said, the Bengals are legit. Their defense is for real and the whole Dalton to Green connection is something you have to believe in. I like the Bengals at home.
Pick: Bengals -7

At NY Giants -3 Buffalo
The Bills got off to a hot start, but they’ve faced some adversity the past couple weeks. The Giants are an up and down team searching for answers. Bradshaw’s calling out the o-line. Eli Manning is always on the cusp of greatness, but he still makes turnovers that’ll make you question his ability, week in and week out. I think the Buffalo D does enough to take advantage of New York’s miscues. The Bills pound the rock with Freddy and win on the road.
Pick: Bills +3

At Baltimore -8 Houston
I get that the Ravens are playing really good football and yea, they’re playing at home and all, but the spread seems a bit high for this contest. I get that Andre Johnson is out and Baltimore’s D is amazing, but this spread just seems a tad too high. A field goal, sure. Six points or seven points, maybe. Two scores? Nah, not buying it. Texans can cover.
Pick: Texans +8

At Oakland -6.5 Cleveland
The Raiders played inspired football last week. That was on the road. Now they’re at home. The Browns have the unfortunate pleasure of playing a fired-up Oakland squad that just lost their patriarch. The Raiders would be a good bet against a top-tier team this week. Luckily, they get Cleveland. There’s no way the Browns escape Oakland with a win.
Pick: Raiders -6.5

At New England -6.5 Dallas
Who needs a defense? Especially with a ridiculous home winning record. The Cowboys are a yo-yo team that’s shown flashes of greatness and stretches of mediocrity. Miles Austin is back, and that’s bad news for New England. But picking against Tom Brady at home with a touchdown spread? Can’t dot it. Won’t do it.
Pick: Pats -6.5

New Orleans -4.5 At Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is always a tricky team to bet against. Just when you think they suck balls, they pull off an amazing win. But they got manhandled last week, and they lost Blount in the process. The Saints are just too good.
Pick: Saints -4.5

At Chicago -3 Minnesota
The Bears offense went off last week, but their o-line is a mess. Martz is finding creative ways to get Forte the ball. The Vikings defensive front is going to cause problems for Chicago, but I think the Bears can eek out a win here.
Pick: Bears -3

At NY Jets -7 Miami
The Jets need to get their act together if they want to be in the playoff conversation. Miami is beyond desperation mode, but they have Matt Moore under center. I don’t like the fact that Santonio keeps calling out his teammates on a weekly basis, but I think the Jets can handle the Fins at home.
Pick: Jets -7

Last week: 7-5-1
Season:  43 -31-7 ATS