Posts tagged Week 5 NFL Picks

At Cleveland -3.5 Buffalo
We may never see Brandon Weeden throw a pass for the Browns again. Mike Lombardi has been super high on Hoyer for some time now and he finally got a chance to hand the dude a team to lead. Hoyer has responded by winning two straight. The Bills took out the Super Bowl champs last week, but they’ll have their hands full against a much improved defense and a hot team that could take temporary ownership of first place in the AFC North after Thursday Night.
Pick: Browns -3.5

Kansas City -3 At Tennessee
At the beginning of the year, it would have been difficult to imagine that these two teams would have one loss between them entering Week 5. Hooray, parity! The loss of Jake Locker really hurts Tennessee. Fitzpatrick is a backup for a reason. He doesn’t have the arm or the semi-quick feet of Locker. If the QB sitch was different, maybe there’d be some debate here, but the Chiefs are likely to exit Tennessee with their undefeated record intact.
Pick: Chiefs -3

At Miami -3 Baltimore
Miami’s o-line can’t pass block and Baltimore’s o-line can’t run block. Ray Rice should be back and that should help matters some, especially with Harbaugh stating that he wanted to make Rice the focal point of the offense moving forward. But the Fins are allowing just under 100 yards per game, good for 10th in the league. Mike Wallace may not be getting the big plays he wants, but the Dolphins are still playing good football. The Saints loss last week was to be expected, but the Fins should rebound in Week 5.
Pick: Fins -3

At St. Louis -11.5 Jacksonville
The Rams aren’t that great but they are at least two TDs better than the worst team of all time.
Pick: Rams -11.5

At Cincinnati -3 New England
Everyone loves the Bengals, but the shine of their preseason hype is starting to fade a bit. AJ Green got all kinds of frustrated last week against the Browns, and he hasn’t really had a strong performance since his monster Week 1. The Pats are all banged up. Losing Vince Wilfork hurts, and whenever you go out and sign Austin Collie, you know your receiving options are hurting a bit. But I still like betting on Brady in general and if the Pats are going to be dogs for two weeks in a row, make the right decision.
Pick: Pats +3

Seattle -3 At Indianapolis
The Colts are so much more balanced this year. Luck is throwing the ball less and that trend should continue with a stronger running attack. Seattle can struggle on the road, but they haven’t lost away from home yet. Still, that Indy stadium can get pretty lively. The Colts had a cakewalk last week, but that 49ers drubbing from Week 3 is still fresh in my mind. As awesome as Seattle is, I think the Colts can take ‘em at home.
Pick: Colts +3

At Green Bay -7 Detroit
The Lions sit atop the NFC North, but it could be time for a correction. With two weeks to heal up and prep for Detroit, the Packers are primed for a bounce back game. There should be plenty of offense in this game, and despite Detroit’s big win over Chicago last week, I think the Packers are going to get the better of the Lions and normalize the NFC North standings a bit.
Pick: Packers -7

New Orleans -1 At Chicago
If Detroit can do the Bears like that, so can the Saints. With Brees firing on all cylinders, a defense that has 10 (!) takeaways and a tight end that can give you six scores and 458 yards in four games, New Orleans is looking ready for a run. The Bears are no pushovers (3rd in the league in scoring, league leader in takeaways, undefeated at home), but the Saints are a better team.
Pick: Saints -1

At NY Giants -2 Philadelphia
Both these teams look broken, but remember what the Eagles offense looked like in Week 1? It seems so long ago, before all the turnovers and the not scoring set in. But the Giants got problems, man. David Wilson might finally have a game worth noting this week, even behind a banged up offensive line, and Eli will find opportunities against the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL, but I still thing the Eagles can right the ship and find some of that offensive magic that’s been missing for the past few weeks.
Pick: Eagles +2

Carolina -2 At Arizona
Panthers are better. Better D, better O. How cares if this game is in Glendale.
Pick: Panthers -2

San Diego -4.5 At Oakland
Rivers is on fire lately, but his defense is giving life to opposing team’s QBs. Pryor gets the start after Matt Flynn’s sorry showing last week and he should have a pretty good game. But every week Rivers manages to make someone a hero – Eddie Royal, Danny Woodhead, Antonio Gates. You get the idea. Despite strong performances from Terrelle Pryor and Rashard Jennings, I still like the Chargers in the late-late game.
Pick: Chargers -4.5

Denver -7.5 At Dallas
Both teams sit on top of their respective divisions, but the Broncos are unstoppable and the Cowboys are kinda stoppable.
Pick: Broncos -7.5

At San Francisco -6.5 Houston
Will the Schaub pick-six streak continue? Will the 49ers build off that crushing win against St. Louis? Can Arian find room to run? Both teams are 2-2 and this matchup should show us which team’s a legit playoff contender and which squad will be battling for wild card status. Houston’s D is number one in the league against the pass and number one in the league in yards allowed. That sounds dandy, right? Well the same unit ranks 23rd in the league against the run and 23rd in the league in points allowed. San Francisco learned last week that if you feed Frank Gore, good things happen. The Niners take the ball out of Kap’s hands and win this one the old fashioned way.
Pick: Niners -6.5

At Atlanta -10 NY Jets
I love Bilal. I love shouting his name when watching Jets games. “BI-LALLL!!” You should try it sometime. It’s really therapeutic. Bilal love aside, the Jets are overmatched here, as the spread indicates. Yea the Falcons are 1-3 and the Jets are 2-2, but let’s not fool ourselves here. Atlanta’s three losses have come against the Saints, Fins and Pats, three teams that are a combined 11-1 on the year. The Jets beat the winless Bucs by a point and the 2-2 Bills by a TD. Flacons are gonna roll.
Pick: Falcons -10

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 28-33-2
Last Season: 136-121-5

At Indianapolis -2.5 Kansas City
Someone’s gotta win this game. I thought Painter settled down and looked half-decent against Tampa Bay on Monday. He deserves to get the nod even if Kerry Collins is healthy. The Chiefs have improved steadily since their first two blowout losses to start the season. This will likely be a close game where the under is the most enticing play. Edge goes to Indy’s pass rush and a home crowd hungry for a W.
Pick: Colts -2.5

At Minnesota -2.5 Arizona
Both these teams have looked atrocious this year. The winless Vikings have blown leads and the Cardinals just can’t seem to get a rhythm going on offense, even with the great season that Beanie Wells is turning in. I’d stay away from this game cause either side you choose is bound to let you down.  I’m not picking a McNabb team to win anything ever again. If you have to make a pick here, go with the Cards.
Pick: Cardinals +2.5

Philadelphia -2.5 At Buffalo
Despite the painful offensive showing against Cincy, I still love these Bills. The Eagles are bound to turn things around, but all’s not right in Philly. I like a rebound win for the Bills over a back-to-the-wall win from the Eagles.
Pick: Bills +2.5

At Houston -6 Oakland
The loss and Andre Johnson is brutal, but lucky for Kubs and company, Arian Foster is back to his 2010 form. The Raiders are tough football team capable of competing for the AFC West crown, but they’re outmatched here. Houston builds on last week’s win against the Steelers and wins easy at home.
Pick: Texans -6

New Orleans -6.5 At Carolina
This game screams over, and you just know how this one will play out. The Saints will jump out to an early lead and Brees will look dominant. The Panthers will start slowish and then start playing a little looser as they realize their down. Then, the Cam Newton garbage time express will arrive in New Orleans. The Panthers will rack up crazy numbers while the Saints go into their typical mid-to-late game funk. In the end, Brees finds away to maintain the score separation and the Saints end the game with more points on the scoreboard.
Pick: Saints -6.5

At Jacksonville -2.5 Cincinnati
Yea it’s only Week 5, but don’t look now, the Bengals have the best defense in football! The Bengals aren’t going to ride their staunch D, decent ground game and solid rookie QB/WR combo to the playoffs, but they’re going to win games like this.
Pick: Bengals +2.5

At Pittsburgh -3 Tennessee
The Steelers are broken. Pouncey’s hurt. Mendenhall is likely out for this game. James Harrison is out for awhile with a busted face/eye socket. Big Ben should play, but he can’t sustain anymore d-lineman lunching at his knees this year. The Titans are benefiting from a strong defense and steady play at quarterback. I expect the underachieving Steelers to step it up this week and get the most out of their makeshift o-line and battered roster. Isaac Redman will run hard and make the most out of his first start. The Steelers will find ways to get point on the board and edge out the Titans at home.
Pick: Steelers -3

At NY Giants -10 Seattle
Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are suddenly a dominating one-two punch. Eli Manning has looked sharp the past two games; he’s thrown six TDs and zero interceptions the last two weeks. If Eli Manning can maintain this career-year pace this week, the Giants should have no trouble beating the Seahawks by a couple scores in the Meadowlands.
Pick: Giants -10

At San Francisco -3 Tampa Bay
The 49ers are legit. They’re 4-0 against the spread this year and they’ve earned the right to be home favorites this week. Tampa Bay’s a weird team to judge. They thrive on little dump passes, bruising short-to-medium range runs and solid 4^th quarter closing skills. But they still haven’t looked all that impressive. San Francisco is playing inspired. Frank Gore’s back, Harbaugh’s all fired up and even the much maligned Alex Smith has looked more comfortable the past couple weeks. Add in a stingy defense and you got the recipe for a potential division championship.
Pick: Niners -3

At New England -9 NY Jets
The Pats defense is as terrible as their offense is awesome. It’s really a crazy contrast. New England had the worst defense in the league before they lost standout LB Jerod Mayo. The Jets have their own set of problems. They can’t run the ball and Sanchez just isn’t getting the protection he needs to succeed through the air. You just know Rex is gonna whip these guys into shape this week. I’d feel much more comfortable picking the Pats with a friendlier spread. I really don’t see this turning into a blowout, but I can’t pick against New England’s explosive offense.
Pick: Pats -9

San Diego -4 At Denver
As much as I love Eric Decker, I can’t really get behind the Broncos on either side of the ball, even at home. This is one of those classic AFC West matchups that I have no interest in watching. I don’t know what it is about Chargers games, but they just always feel like the most boring games of the day on Sundays.  It’s gotta be that way.
Pick: Chargers -4

Green Bay -5.5 At Atlanta
The Falcons have trouble stopping the pass. The Packers can score at will through the air. We all know that the Falcons play better at home, but that’s not enough of an edge for them to take out the high-octane champs. Green Bay gets the best of the Falcons in a shoot out.
Pick: Packers -5.5

At Detroit -5.5 Chicago
The Lions hype won’t stop this week or next. This team’s just way fun to watch. Nasty big guys upfront on both sides of the ball, dynamic QB play, come-from-behind victories, Megatron dominating in triple coverage, what more could you want?
Pick: Lions -5.5

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 36-26-2 ATS