Week 5 NFL Picks
At Cleveland -3.5 Buffalo
We may never see Brandon Weeden throw a pass for the Browns again. Mike Lombardi has been super high on Hoyer for some time now and he finally got a chance to hand the dude a team to lead. Hoyer has responded by winning two straight. The Bills took out the Super Bowl champs last week, but they’ll have their hands full against a much improved defense and a hot team that could take temporary ownership of first place in the AFC North after Thursday Night.
Pick: Browns -3.5
Kansas City -3 At Tennessee
At the beginning of the year, it would have been difficult to imagine that these two teams would have one loss between them entering Week 5. Hooray, parity! The loss of Jake Locker really hurts Tennessee. Fitzpatrick is a backup for a reason. He doesn’t have the arm or the semi-quick feet of Locker. If the QB sitch was different, maybe there’d be some debate here, but the Chiefs are likely to exit Tennessee with their undefeated record intact.
Pick: Chiefs -3
At Miami -3 Baltimore
Miami’s o-line can’t pass block and Baltimore’s o-line can’t run block. Ray Rice should be back and that should help matters some, especially with Harbaugh stating that he wanted to make Rice the focal point of the offense moving forward. But the Fins are allowing just under 100 yards per game, good for 10th in the league. Mike Wallace may not be getting the big plays he wants, but the Dolphins are still playing good football. The Saints loss last week was to be expected, but the Fins should rebound in Week 5.
Pick: Fins -3
At St. Louis -11.5 Jacksonville
The Rams aren’t that great but they are at least two TDs better than the worst team of all time.
Pick: Rams -11.5
At Cincinnati -3 New England
Everyone loves the Bengals, but the shine of their preseason hype is starting to fade a bit. AJ Green got all kinds of frustrated last week against the Browns, and he hasn’t really had a strong performance since his monster Week 1. The Pats are all banged up. Losing Vince Wilfork hurts, and whenever you go out and sign Austin Collie, you know your receiving options are hurting a bit. But I still like betting on Brady in general and if the Pats are going to be dogs for two weeks in a row, make the right decision.
Pick: Pats +3
Seattle -3 At Indianapolis
The Colts are so much more balanced this year. Luck is throwing the ball less and that trend should continue with a stronger running attack. Seattle can struggle on the road, but they haven’t lost away from home yet. Still, that Indy stadium can get pretty lively. The Colts had a cakewalk last week, but that 49ers drubbing from Week 3 is still fresh in my mind. As awesome as Seattle is, I think the Colts can take ‘em at home.
Pick: Colts +3
At Green Bay -7 Detroit
The Lions sit atop the NFC North, but it could be time for a correction. With two weeks to heal up and prep for Detroit, the Packers are primed for a bounce back game. There should be plenty of offense in this game, and despite Detroit’s big win over Chicago last week, I think the Packers are going to get the better of the Lions and normalize the NFC North standings a bit.
Pick: Packers -7
New Orleans -1 At Chicago
If Detroit can do the Bears like that, so can the Saints. With Brees firing on all cylinders, a defense that has 10 (!) takeaways and a tight end that can give you six scores and 458 yards in four games, New Orleans is looking ready for a run. The Bears are no pushovers (3rd in the league in scoring, league leader in takeaways, undefeated at home), but the Saints are a better team.
Pick: Saints -1
At NY Giants -2 Philadelphia
Both these teams look broken, but remember what the Eagles offense looked like in Week 1? It seems so long ago, before all the turnovers and the not scoring set in. But the Giants got problems, man. David Wilson might finally have a game worth noting this week, even behind a banged up offensive line, and Eli will find opportunities against the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL, but I still thing the Eagles can right the ship and find some of that offensive magic that’s been missing for the past few weeks.
Pick: Eagles +2
Carolina -2 At Arizona
Panthers are better. Better D, better O. How cares if this game is in Glendale.
Pick: Panthers -2
San Diego -4.5 At Oakland
Rivers is on fire lately, but his defense is giving life to opposing team’s QBs. Pryor gets the start after Matt Flynn’s sorry showing last week and he should have a pretty good game. But every week Rivers manages to make someone a hero – Eddie Royal, Danny Woodhead, Antonio Gates. You get the idea. Despite strong performances from Terrelle Pryor and Rashard Jennings, I still like the Chargers in the late-late game.
Pick: Chargers -4.5
Denver -7.5 At Dallas
Both teams sit on top of their respective divisions, but the Broncos are unstoppable and the Cowboys are kinda stoppable.
Pick: Broncos -7.5
At San Francisco -6.5 Houston
Will the Schaub pick-six streak continue? Will the 49ers build off that crushing win against St. Louis? Can Arian find room to run? Both teams are 2-2 and this matchup should show us which team’s a legit playoff contender and which squad will be battling for wild card status. Houston’s D is number one in the league against the pass and number one in the league in yards allowed. That sounds dandy, right? Well the same unit ranks 23rd in the league against the run and 23rd in the league in points allowed. San Francisco learned last week that if you feed Frank Gore, good things happen. The Niners take the ball out of Kap’s hands and win this one the old fashioned way.
Pick: Niners -6.5
At Atlanta -10 NY Jets
I love Bilal. I love shouting his name when watching Jets games. “BI-LALLL!!” You should try it sometime. It’s really therapeutic. Bilal love aside, the Jets are overmatched here, as the spread indicates. Yea the Falcons are 1-3 and the Jets are 2-2, but let’s not fool ourselves here. Atlanta’s three losses have come against the Saints, Fins and Pats, three teams that are a combined 11-1 on the year. The Jets beat the winless Bucs by a point and the 2-2 Bills by a TD. Flacons are gonna roll.
Pick: Falcons -10
Last Week: 9-6
Season: 28-33-2
Last Season: 136-121-5
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