Week 5 NFL Picks
Arizona -1.5 At St. Louis
Cards. Believe.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5
Atlanta -3 At Washington
Matt Ryan leads the league in passer rating (112.1). He’s thrown for 1,162 yards for 11 TDs and just 2 picks. He’s got weapons everywhere, a serviceable rushing game and a defense that’s holding opponents to 19 points a game. The Skins have a quality offense, but their passing defense ranks last in the league. Whether it’s Tony G, Julio or Roddy making the plays, enough plays will be made for Atlanta to win by three. Especially against the league’s second-worst pass defense.
Pick: Falcons -3
At Pittsburgh -3.5 Philadelphia
The Steelers are whole again. They get their primary RB and two huge defensive playmakers (Harrison and Polamalu) back on the field just in time. Tomlin’s teams are 4-2 ATS after bye weeks. It’s time for the Steelers to step up and grab a big win at home.
Pick: Steelers -3.5
Green Bay -7 At Indianapolis
Greg Jennings is out, but even without their best receiver, the Packers are more than a touchdown better than the Colts. The Colts had an extra week to prepare for the matchup, but they also lost their head coach for the foreseeable future. Even if the team comes out inspired, it likely won’t be enough.
Pick: Packers -7
At NY Giants -9 Cleveland
The Browns kept it close with the Ravens last week, which was a bit surprising. There are things to like about this 0-4 squad, but the matchup is too difficult. The Giants are averaging 29.8 points per game. Cleveland’s averaging 18.2. The spread’s about right.
Pick: Giants -9
At Minnesota -5.5 Tennessee
Hasslebeck gets the nod in the dome and suddenly Chris Johnson can run forward. Time for a Tennessee turnaround? I think not. The Vikings are the surprise leaders of their division, winners of two straight and the safer bet at home.
Pick: Vikings -5.5
At Cincinnati -3.5 Miami
What the what? The Fins have the best run D in football, you say? They’re only allowing how many rushing yards a game? 56.8? Bananas, I tell you. But what about their pass D? Oh, they’re allowing almost three bills a game. 30t hin the league. Damn. Good news for AJ Green (who would be leading the NFL in receiving yards if it wasn’t for that pesky 253-yard Hartline stat line last week). The Fins can move the ball too though. They got a promising QB and Reggie Bush is averaging 5.5 yards a carry. Both teams are hurtin’ at the corner spots, too. This game feels like it could hit the over by halftime. Bengals win the shootout.
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Baltimore -6 At Kansas City
When did the Ravens become an offensive powerhouse? They’re putting up 424 yards and 30 points per game. And they’re well-rested heading into Arrowhead. The Chiefs are going to pound the rock and hope that Matt Cassel can stop throwing picks. Ravens avoid the trap.
Pick: Ravens -6
At Carolina -3 Seattle
Seattle’s letdown loss last week was easy to anticipate, but I like them in this matchup. It’s really a strength-against-strength thing. Carolina gets the checkmark on O and Seattle’s got the D. It’ll be interesting to see how the battle plays out between a strong pass rush and a QB who can gash you with big runs. I think the Seahawks can rattle Cam into a pouty, towel-over-the-head style finish. And then there’s this fun fact: The Panthers have allowed over 300 rushing yards the past two games and they’ll be going up against the NFL’s leading rusher in Marshawn Lynch (473 yards).
Pick: Seattle +3
Chicago -6 At Jacksonville
Cutler looked sharp last week. He was decisive and he kept throwing TDs even after the game was long decided. Jacksonville isn’t going to be able to feed MJD all day and expect huge chunks of yards. The Jags need to make plays with the passing game. Good luck doing that against a defense that leads the league in INTs.
Pick: Bears -6
At New England -6.5 Denver
The Pats made a statement last week, dropping 52 points on the Bills. They seem to have a tough time beating Denver though. I get the feeling this game is going to come down to the wire. Probably a field goal. Pats will likely win and not quite cover.
Pick: Broncos +6.5
At San Francisco -10 Buffalo
If the Bills pair of starting RBs can’t get going against the Niners, then no one can. I know the 49ers are supposed to be super good at defense and covering spreads at home and all that, but I’m not sold on this spread. Seems a bit steep. The Bills can move the ball better than the Jets, but they’re still likely to lose convincingly.
Pick: Niners -10
At New Orleans -3.5 San Diego
The only winless teams in the league are the Saints and the Browns. After Sunday night, the Browns will be in sole possession of that dubious distinction. Brees blows up at home in the dome, and if he’s going to unleash some 0-4 frustration, might as well do it against the team that let him get away.
Pick: Saints -3.5
Houston -8 At NY Jets
The Jets are a mess and the Texans are firing on all cylinders. Sanchez needs a big game to quiet the calls for Tebow. If the Jets somehow show up at home it could do wonders to stop the downward spiral of their season. I think a convincing win by the Texans is more likely. Houston may clinch their division by midseason.
Pick: Texans -8
Last Week: 9-6
Season 31-31-1
Last Season: 140-120-12
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