Posts tagged Week 11 NFL Picks

At Buffalo -2.5 Miami
The Bills stood tall against the Pats last week, but they still got the loss. The Fins offense has disappeared of late. Bills take this one at home.
Pick: Bills -2.5

At Washington -3.5 Philadelphia
I’m not sold on Foles, but the Redskins D gives him a chance. If he wins, he’s the future. If he loses, it’s back to the drawing board. It’s lights out in Philly after the season, but I bet they win this one.
Pick: Eagles +3.5

Green Bay -3.5 At Detroit
The Lions start slow and usually finish strong. That’s not going to work this week. Packers win convincingly.
Pick: Packers -3.5

At Atlanta -10 Arizona
The Cards are a mess. They’ve lost five games in a row. With or without Julio Jones, number six is on tap.
Pick: Falcons -10

Tampa Bay -1.5 At Carolina
The Bucs are making noise. They’re above .500 and running the ball with authority. The Panthers are a two win team that just can’t seem to dial up the ground game when they need it. Should be a seesaw battle, but edge goes to Tampa Bay.
Pick: Bucs -1.5

At Dallas -8 Cleveland
I’ve been trying to will the Browns into achieving more, but they refuse. Weeden;s just turned the ball over too much. Boys win at home.
Pick: Cowboys -8

At St. Louis -3.5 NY Jets
I’m not sold on Bradford. Dude looked scared last week. The Jets are a dysfunctional mess, though, and they’re going against their former o-coordinator who’s got to have a pulse on all of their weaknesses.
Pick: Rams -3.5

At New England -9 Indianapolis
The Colts aren’t going to go down lightly. I expect the Pats to win, but not by two scores.
Pick: Colts -9

At Houston -15.5 Jacksonville
The spread couldn’t be high enough,
Pick: Texans -15.5

Cincinnati -3.5 At Kansas City
Arrowhead isn’t an easy spot to visit, but the Bengals are coming off a big win, and I think Brady Quinn will give that defense plenty of chances to make plays.
Pick: Bengals -3.5

New Orleans -5 At Oakland
The Raiders are missing their best player. The Saints can light it up and get to .500.
Pick: Saints -5

At Denver -8 San Diego
There’s something wrong in San Diego. Norv’s about to lose it, Ryan Mathews has a pain in his neck and big free agent acquisition Robert Meachem is riding the pine. Meanwhile, Peyton’s making John Elway look like a genius.
Pick: Broncos -8

Baltimore -3.5 At Pittsburgh
I really want to believe in the Mendenhall-ready, Ben-less Steelers, but it’s just too hard. Baltimore’s D is suspect against the run, but Byron Leftwich is just suspect all round. With no Troy, no Ben and no Antonio, the Steelers might have to wait a couple weeks to get their win against the Ravens. That said, I’m a shameless Steelers fan and I gotta go with my boys.
Pick: Steelers +3.5

At San Francisco -4.5 Chicago
Alex Smith and Jay Cutler both got knocked on the noggin. Cutler’s not expected to play. Smith is expected to start. I’d like Chicago a lot better without Jason Campbell under center. He’s good for a couple of turnovers.
Pick: 49ers -4.5

Last Week: 8-6
Season 73-68-2
Last Season: 140-120-12

NY Jets -4.5 At Denver
Oh that Tim Tebow, so magical, so unconventional, so unable to complete more than a handful of passes a game. Denver’s tailored their entire offensive approach to the guy. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. If McGahee’s out, it’s going to be hard for Denver to hang with the Jets. The Broncos are still in the playoff race in the dismal AFC West, but they’ll take a step back this week.
Pick: Jets -4.5

At Atlanta -6 Tennessee
The Titans bounced back big time and brought the Chiefs back down to reality last week. I don’t think they can handle the Falcons at home though. Remember what Houston and Pittsburgh did to this team? It’s one thing to hang with teams that aren’t all that explosive offensively, but the Falcons, who are coming off a crucial overtime loss to the Saints, are going to bring the Titans back down to Earth.
Pick: Falcons -6

At Miami -2 Buffalo
Since when did Reggie Bush morph into a pro version of his former college self? And what the hell happened to the Bills? The Buffalo bandwagon is beyond empty after the Bills went 1-3 in their last four games (with the one win coming against a horrendous Redskins team). How will the team respond after losing by 37 to Dallas? Coach Chan Gailey said his team is “more of a pretender than a contender” at this point. The Fins have won two in a row and the Bills have lost two in a row. Something’s gotta give here. I feel like the Miami magic can’t be sustained, and I think the Bills are due for a W.
Pick: Bills +2

At Baltimore -7 Cincinnati
In Week 7, Ray Rice received only eight carries and the Ravens lost on the road to the lowly Jags. You’d think the Baltimore brain trust would avoid skimping on the Rice carries going forward, but last week, Rice logged only five rushing attempts, and you guessed it, the Ravens lost on the road to an inferior team. That just can’t happen. This guy’s your best skill player and needs to be a big part of the game plan. The Bengals D holds teams to just 86.8 rushing yards a game, but so what. Expect large servings of Rice in this matchup, defense be damned. The Bengals are hitting the tough/most-important part of their schedule. They lost to Pittsburgh last week and they almost lost AJ Green in the process. Even if Green does suit up, I think the Ravens are due for a rebound game at home, and memories of Cincy’s recent division lead will soon be erased for good.
Pick: Ravens -7

Jacksonville -1 At Cleveland
Cleveland’s offense is so very, very hard to watch. The Jags aren’t exactly lightening it up, but the Browns are just allergic to touchdowns. If Jacksonville can find the endzone, even once, it’ll probably be enough.
Pick: Jags -1

At Minnesota -1.5 Oakland
Carson Palmer is making Hue Jackson look like a genius. The Vikings can’t stop anybody. Palmer’s going to have a huge game. He’s got a good thing going with Denarius Moore, and even if DMC is sidelined, Michael Bush is a more than suitable sub.
Pick: Raiders +1.5

At Detroit -7 Carolina
Stafford had a meltdown game last week. He broke a finger, but he’s been practicing and is expected to play against the Panthers. Maurice Morris hasn’t been that bad filling in for Jahvid Best. He has to like his chances this week, going up against the 28th ranked run defense in the league. The Panthers looked flat last week, but they should be able to put up more points on Detroit. I think there will be a ton of scoring opportunities in this game, but Detroit will pull ahead and run it out.
Pick: Lions -7

At Green Bay -13.5 Tampa Bay
Just go ahead and pick the Packers. The spread is pretty irrelevant. They’ll cover, bro.
Pick: Packers -13.5

Dallas -8 At Washington
The Cowboys are clicking. The Skins aren’t. There’s just too many weapons for Dallas and not enough firepower for Washington. Sure both defenses aren’t pushovers, but I like the Cowboys to win this important division matchup.
Pick: Cowboys -8

At San Francisco -9.5 Arizona
The spread’s a bit high, but the Niners are really good at covering this year. Like, amazingly good. San Francisco is 8-0-1 against the spread this season. That’s the longest unbeaten ATS streak to start a season since 1980. The Niners are going to take the run game away and force Skelton to throw the ball. He may connect with Larry Fitzgerald for a few amazing catches, but that just won’t be enough. Don’t be afraid of the big spread.
Pick: 49ers -9.5

At St. Louis -2 Seattle
Seattle showed up at home and took down the Ravens. The Rams aren’t top-tier competition, but the Seahawks don’t win games on the road (that Week 5 matchup against the Giants being the exception). Look for the Rams offense to show a bit more spark this week as the team looks for their third win in four games.
Pick: Rams -2

At Chicago -3.5 San Diego
Philip Rivers has been a turnover machine, and now he’s missing half of his offensive line. Julius Peppers should have a big day. The Chargers are riding a four game losing streak while the Bears have won four in a row. I don’t think San Diego is just going to roll over here, but Chicago’s playing good ball all around and the Chargers are not.
Pick: Bears -3.5

At NY Giants -3 Philadelphia
Will Vick play or not? Does it matter? The Eagles are no longer relevant, but the Giants still have a bunch to play for. With the Cowboys surging, the Giants need a W to maintain their lead in the NFC East. The Eagles may put up a good fight, but this game is more important to the Giants.
Pick: Giants -3

At New England -14 Kansas City
Maybe this Palko kid can play, maybe not. But if you take a guy who’s attempted 13 career passes and you put him in a primetime matchup against a New England team that dominates at home and is coming off a big divisional win that snapped a two game losing streak, I’m going to lean towards the Pats, even with a two touchdown spread.
Pick: Pats -14

Week 10: 10-6
Season: 86-56-9