At Detroit -3 Dallas
Home team gets the edge in a god battle between two 3-4 teams.
Pick: Lions -3

At Philadelphia -5.5 NY Giants
Can the Giants make it two in a row? Not if Vick plays a full game.
Pick: Eagles -5.5

At Kansas City -7 Cleveland
Jason Campbell against the league’s best D.
Pick: Chiefs -7

At New Orleans -10.5 Buffalo
Thad’s not terrible, but the Saints at home are too much.
Pick: Saints -10.5

At New England -6 Miami
Tom Brady is under pressure to make things happen with less protection and fewer splashy playmakers. The Pats just don’t lose two in a row that often though.
Pick: Pats -6

At Cincinnati -5.5 NY Jets
The Bengals are looking like one of the teams to beat in the AFC, but can they be as physical as the Jets?
Pick: Jets +5.5

Pittsburgh -2.5 At Oakland
Pittsburgh doesn’t always perform well in Oakland, but with an inspired D and balance on O they’ll win three in a row.
Pick: Steelers -2.5

At Denver -11.5 Washington
This game’s going to be a points-fest. I think the Skins might be able to hang or at least not get blown out.
Pick: Skins +11.5

At Arizona -2.5 Atlanta
The Cards are hard to read, but the Falcons can still make noise despite all the injuries.
Pick: Falcons +2.5

Green Bay -7.5 At Minnesota
Maybe Freeman settles down a bit. Looks like he still needs more time though.
Pick: Packers -7.5

Seattle -11.5 At St. Louis
Whenever Favre comes up as a viable option for you at QB, you’ve got problems.
Pick: Seahawks -11.5

New England -7 St. Louis (in London)
Pats cover across the pond.
Pick: Pats -7

At Tennessee -3.5 Indianapolis
Titans get to .500 behind another strong effort from Chris Johnson.
Pick: Titans -3.5

At Green Bay -14 Jacksonville
The Packers roll all over the MJD-less Jags in a one-sided beat down. No Jennings, no Jordy, no problem.
Pick: Packers -14

San Diego -2.5 At Cleveland
I want to believe these Browns will put it all together, but I think they’ll have a hard time stopping the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers -2.5

At Philadelphia -3 Atlanta
Atlanta just keeps on winning, but it’s desperation time for the Eagles. Everyone loves Philly in this game so I’m going the other way.
Pick: Falcons +3

At Detroit -2.5 Seattle
Seattle keeps it close as Detroit’s offense continues to sputter.
Pick: Seattle +2.5

At NY Jets -2.5 Miami
The Jets can get to .500 with a win. They’ve been playing tough the last couple weeks. Reggie Bush is going to run angry, but the Jets should squeak by in game dominated by punts and field goals.
Pick: Jets-2.5

At Chicago -7.5 Carolina
Featuring Jonathan Stewart as a primary back is a great idea, but the Panthers aren’t going to right the ship that quickly days after firing their GM. Chicago capitalizes against a team that needs more changes.
Pick: Bears -7.5

At Pittsburgh -4 Washington
Dwyer gets his second straight start and Big Ben gets the word pass defense in the NFL. Yea RG3 is amazing, but Pittsburgh can match offensive strikes.
Pick: Steelers -4.5

At Kansas City -2 Oakland
The Chiefs are 0-3 at home and the Raiders are 0-3 on the road. Something’s gotta give. Quinn’s got a chance to prove himself again, but I see Palmer making more plays.
Pick: Raiders +2

NY Giants -2 At Dallas
Dallas beat ‘em before, but Eli loves putting up big numbers in Big D.
Pick: Giants -2

At Denver -6.6 New Orleans
Shoot out city. I like the Saints to keep pace.
Saints +6.5

San Francisco -6.5 At Arizona
Big divisional battle. Two great defenses. Edge has to go to San Francisco.
Pick: 49ers -6.5

Last Week: 6-5-1
Season 48-53-2
Last Season: 140-120-12

At Tennessee -8.5 Indianapolis
The Colts aren’t going to win. They’re a bad team. Their defense was allowing more than 27 points per game before the 62-7 shellacking that took place on Sunday night. Curtis Painter isn’t the problem. He had a bad game last week, but he’s actually been pretty serviceable this season. Both teams are coming off embarrassing blowouts, but the Titans are better equipped for a rebound. And they’re playing at home.
Pick: Titans -8.5

At Houston -9.5 Jacksonville
With the AFC Central up for grabs this year, both of these teams have a chance to be dangerous. The Texans snapped a two game losing streak last week when they routed the Titans. The Jags snapped a 5 game losing streak when they upset Baltimore on Monday. I think the Jags have to be fired up and motivated to play, but the Texans present to big of a challenge. The spread may be a bit too high here, but you have to think Houston can handle this team, especially if Andre Johnson is back in the fold this week.
Pick: Texans -9.5

At Carolina -3.5 Minnesota
I like Christian Ponder. I think he brings a much-needed spark. Carolina’s dangerous though. Not on defense, of course, but Cam can move the ball. His favorite weapon, Steve Smith, is averaging a ridiculous 21 yards per reception. Adrian Peterson is going to have a huge game against a run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. It’s hard to think that Carolina won’t keep it close, but I think Ponder will shine in a game plan that calls for heavy doses of AP.
Pick: Vikings +3.5

New Orleans -13.5 At St. Louis
Let’s see, we have a team that scored 62 points last week and going up against a winless squad led by journeyman backup AJ Feely. The two touchdown spread almost seems too low.
Pick: Saints -13.5

At Baltimore -13 Arizona
The Ravens looked bizarre last week. Ray Rice couldn’t get going and didn’t do much with the measly eight carries he received. Baltimore’s offensive woes weren’t just limited to last week, though. Joe Flacco has one TD and three INTs in the last three games. Luckily he gets to go up against an Arizona secondary that ranks 28th in the league against the pass. The Cards lost Beanie Wells last week and Kevin Kolb is having a pretty mediocre season. After the ugly loss on Monday, John Harbaugh’s going to have his team ready to rock against an inferior opponent.
Pick: Ravens -13

At NY Giants -10 Miami
Nothing is going to stop the Dolphins downward spiral, especially not a trip to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that’s leading the way in the NFC East. NFL teams have been sucking it up after bye weeks, but the G-men are getting guys like Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs back. Miami loses again.
Pick: Giants -10

At Buffalo (in Toronto) -6 Washington
The Skins lost Tim Hightower for the year and Santa Moss is going to miss extended time. The John Beck era didn’t really start off with a bang either. The Bills have cooled considerably since their hot start, but their ball hawking D, strong run game and steady QB play should earn them a victory.
Pick: Bills -6

Detroit -3 At Denver
Stafford’s banged up and Best is likely to miss the game for Detroit. Tim Tebow looked absolutely horrendous for three and a half quarters last week, then he pulled off a miracle comeback that included defensive blunders, diving catches and a whole lot of luck. No one can question that Tebow has something special about him. He just can’t throw the ball. And that seems like an important skill for an NFL QB. I’ll take a banged up Lions team on the road against an offense with two suspect running backs (Tebow and Knowshon) at the helm. Even if Shaun Hill starts, Detroit’s the better play.
Pick: Lions -3

New England -3 At Pittsburgh
There’s no questioning the fact that Tom Brady owns the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Playoffs, regular season – you name it – Brady just loves spreading the Steelers out and striking at will. But you know what? The Steelers have some good thing going on offense as well. Big Ben’s going to have a big day against New England’s suspect secondary. This high scoring game’s going to come down to one or two red zone stops. Despite Brady’s history against Pittsburgh, I’m taking the Steelers at home.
Pick: Steelers +3

At San Francisco -8.5 Cleveland
Cleveland’s defense isn’t that bad, but their offense is atrocious. The only time this team has topped 17 points this year was in Week 2 when they put up 27 on the winless Colts. I’m pretty much never picking against the 49ers until I see some super compelling reason to not expect this team to crush it.
Pick: Niners -8.5

Cincinnati -3 At Seattle
Sure, Seattle’s a tough place play, but Cincy’s young guns and strong D can handle the Charlie Whitehurst-led Seahawks. Even if T-Jack’s behind center, I like the Bengals on the road.
Pick: Bengals -3

At Philadelphia -3.5 Dallas
The Eagles haven’t lost after a bye week under Andy Reid, but they haven’t spent much time at the bottom of the NFC East either. The Eagles are 2-4 this season, and they’re also 2-4 against the spread. The Dream Team gets too much respect for a squad that has one win in the last five games. Dallas has blown games they should have won and they haven’t lost by more than four points all year. I like the Dallas D to force some mistakes against a team that leads the league in turnovers.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5

San Diego -3.5 At Kansas City
Philip Rivers isn’t having a good year. He says that health isn’t the issue, but something’s going on. He’s forcing the ball (three TDs to five INTs last four games), and the Chiefs held Rivers to zero TDs and forced two picks in Week 3. KC has won three straight and the players seem to be buying into what Todd Haley’s selling. Arrowhead is always a tough place to play. Add in San Diego’s recent mistakes and KC’s momentum, and you have a recipe for a home team victory.
Pick: Chiefs +3.5

Week 7: 8-4-1
Season: 58-40-9 ATS